Tomorrow/today depending on when you’re reading this, we have 4 games of round robin play from The Great American Rivalry.
Recap from 7/17:
Record: 1-2 Net: -.57 units
Overall: 13-8 +5.24 units
It’s been a little while, as I was visiting family over the weekend and then there has been very limited top tier Dota going on around the world. We’ll be starting up again in earnest very soon, as EU is set to be back on the 27th. Can’t wait! Last time we had the article we went 1-2 on the day.
Cr4zy got trounced by 4 Zoomers in their matchup, losing 2-0 in just barely an hour of total gameplay. I wouldn’t put too much stock into this though as it was a couple of oddball drafts from 4 Zoomers that caught Cr4zy off guard. Cr4zy stabilized in the losers bracket before eventually losing to Quincy Crew.
K1 was back for Beastcoast, he must have just had something come up where he couldn’t play the day before, and when he’s given space to farm he can carry any game. This is exactly what he did in Game 1, where his Spectre did more than double the damage of the 2nd place hero in the game. Thunder Predator was able to rebound and take the series after fairly convincing wins in Games 2 and 3. This gave us a split, we lost the TP -1.5 maps but won the ML, and thanks to our bet sizing ended up positive on the series.
We ended the day down just over .5 units, our first losing day in a while. Let’s try to get back on track today!
Hero of the Day:
Spectre is another Position 1 carry hero that appears to be one of the go to heroes on the new patch, at least in NA/SA. She is a late game carry, fairly weak in lane before eventually becoming one of the hardest carries in late game scenarios.
Spectre wins teamfights by causing chaos and essentially winning a war of attrition vs the enemy team. She uses her abilities and item builds to deal consistent aoe damage throughout teamfights, and can get and stay on top of squishy targets with her toolkit. Spectre actually highlights something I’ve been meaning to bring up, one of the other big differences between Dota and LoL. In LoL, ADC’s tend to be squishy throughout the game, even in late game teamfights they can easily die if they get caught alone or are positioned poorly. This is usually not the case in Dota, as Spectre and other carries like her actually become the hardest to kill as the game goes on. This changes the dynamic within teamfights between the 2 games, as the carries in Dota often lead the charge into the enemy team vs needing to always be at the back.
Spectre’s abilities are:
Spectral Dagger: Spectre throws a dagger, either at a point or at a hero. The dagger chases the hero or travels thru the selected point and lingers on them for several seconds, creating a “path” as it travels. While Spectre is on the path, she gains a movement speed boost. While enemies are on the path their movement speed is slowed. Spectre can also move through trees, up hills, and through other normally impassable terrain while on the path and for a brief time after leaving it. This ability helps Spectre escape trouble in the early game while she is relatively weak. She can often run into the trees or over hills to escape otherwise certain death. Late game, this is a powerful tool to stay on top of enemy heroes. The movement speed boost/slow makes it nearly impossible to run away from a Spectre, and will allow her the time needed to grind the enemy healthbar down to 0.
Desolate: Spectre gets bonus damage whenever she attacks an enemy without another enemy unit nearby. This ability is great for both ganking solo enemies and isolating supports in the back of teamfights. Desolate combined with haunt (we’ll get there in a minute) makes it hard for enemies to play alone late in the game, giving Spectre’s team the advantage as they can secure more of the map and thus outfarm the enemy team.
Dispersion: Incoming damage to Spectre is partially reflected, meaning she takes less damage while dealing damage back to the enemy that attacked her. This ability is part of what makes Spectre so tanky and hard to kill. More damage is reflected the closer the attacking enemy is to Spectre. As we’ve mentioned Spectre is great at getting on top of enemy heroes, meaning that there’s often a hero trying to attack her and getting max damage (22%) reflected back at them. This is also particularly useful against melee carries. Both Dispersion and Desolate are passive, meaning that Spectre benefits from them automatically, which makes her easier to play (less buttons to press) than many other heroes, and thus she is popular from the lowest of skill brackets all the way up to the highest (where macro play is much more important so she isn’t “easy” to play at a pro level).
Haunt: Spectre spawns an illusion directly next to every single enemy hero, no matter where they are on the map, regardless of whether or not Spectre’s team can see them at the time Haunt is cast. The illusions automatically attack the heroes they spawn near, doing up to 80% of Spectre’s normal damage. Spectre can teleport her real hero to any illusion at any time during haunt. This is incredibly powerful for teamfights. There are no longer “back lines” for squishy heroes to hide on when Spectre uses Haunt, as she can instantly be on top of them. Plus all the Spectre illusions running around causes a ton of confusion in the teamfight, all the while dealing aoe damage from Spectre’s abilities and items. This is also powerful because it allows Spectre to play far away from her team late in the game, which helps with farming. Typically what will happen is Spectre’s 4 teammates will run around together while she farms alone, and when a fight breaks out she uses Haunt to instantly be in the middle of the fray.
Moving on to the upcoming matches. We have 4 games today, still best of 2 series from the Great American Rivalry.
Vira-Lata Caramelo (+310 G1, +320 G2, +0.5 maps @ +160) vs
Infamous (-500 G1, -500 G2, -0.5 maps @ -220) 2:00 pm EST
I don’t mean to pick on Vira-Lata, hopefully they can translate this top tier experience into some momentum, but they do not belong in this division. They have yet to win a game, and frankly they haven’t really come close. Infamous are a middle of the road team in this tournament, but they should thoroughly trounce Vira-Lata here. The only reason I’m keeping this to a relatively small play on the map spread is that the patch is still pretty new, and maybe just maybe Vira-Lata have figured something out that Infamous haven’t yet. It’s doubtful, but it’s enough to keep me off of the -500 game lines.
My Pick:
Infamous -0.5 maps @ -220 (2 units)
Infamous (+185 G1, +175 G2, +0.5 maps @ -125) vs
Business Associates (-265 G1, -245 G2, -0.5 maps @ -110) 4:00 pm EST
Infamous has an immediate turnaround playing 2 straight series (assuming they don’t adjust the times since currently Quincy Crew also have back to back series) After their rough start after the new patch/multi-week break, Business Associates turned it around a little bit in the OGA Dota Pit, beating this same Infamous team 2-1 (their only recent meeting) before beating 4 Zoomers 2-1 as well. They then lost 2-1 to Thunder Predator and 2-0 to Quincy Crew, neither of which is particularly concerning, those were the 2 best teams in the tournament.
With that said, Business Associates still doesn’t have a clean 2-0 win in any of their last 10 series. In true EE fashion, they cannot seem to get a clean series win against anyone. I like Infamous to steal a game here, either through the draft or through a BA throw.
My Picks:
Infamous G1 +185 (.5 units)
Infamous G2 +175 (.5 units)
Infamous +0.5 maps @ -125 (1 unit)
Quincy Crew (-950 G1, -2000 G2, -1.5 maps @ -700) vs
Infinity Esports (+500 G1, +750 G2, +1.5 maps @ +390) 6:00 pm EST (again watch for a schedule swap)
Quincy Crew got off to a slow start in the OGA Dota Pit tournament, losing 2-0 to Beastcoast and being sent immediately to the losers bracket. It seemed they just wanted to play some extra Dota though, as they proceeded to breeze through the losers bracket and ultimately beat Thunder Predator 3-1 in the finals. With EG currently on break, this team is the class of NA/SA Dota.
Infinity on the other hand, well they just beat Business Associates 2-0 which is…something. However immediately after that match the tied 1-1 with a T2 South American team literally called “Team Unknown”. This should be an easy Quincy Crew 2-0. There’s no value in that bet though, so I’ll be staying away myself, as there is a slight chance QC get experimental with their drafting on the new patch.
My Pick:
No action
Thunder Predator (+235 G1, +235 G2, +0.5 maps @ +110) vs
Quincy Crew (-335 G1, -335 G2, -0.5 maps @ -155) 8:00 pm EST
These two teams just played a best of 5 series, the finals of the OGA Dota Pit tournament that I mentioned in the last series. While Thunder Predator did manage to take Game 2, they were pretty thoroughly decimated in the other 3 games. Since the beginning of April, Quincy Crew are 4-0 against Thunder Predator, with a game score of 9-1. The aforementioned best of 5 was the only match that took place during Thunder Predator’s recent “hot streak”, but the teams did play directly before the hot streak started, a 2-0 QC win.
At first glance I thought it might be worth a shot on Thunder Predator, as the individual game odds only give them a 30% implied chance at winning each game, but after doing my research I think that might actually be a little high. Quincy Crew has had Thunder Predator’s number, but I also think their odds are priced fairly, so I’ll be staying away. The plus odds on TP are enticing so I wouldn’t blame you if you went there, but I won’t be.
My Pick:
No action
Looks like it’s Infamous or bust for us today, let’s hope they bring their A game!
