The OGA Dota Pit tournament rolls on, finishing the 1st round and the upper bracket semifinals.
Recap from 7/16:
Record: 2-2 Net: +1.005 units
Overall: 12-7 +5.81 units
The record yesterday was only 2-2, but given that we were betting on 2 +450 or worse underdogs, I’ll take that any day. We ended the day up just over 1 unit.
Beastcoast looked much better 2-0’ing the presumptive tournament favorite in Quincy Crew. I think they did get a bit lucky with Quincy Crew throwing a decent sized lead in both games, but they forced them into at least some of the errors. I don’t think Beastcoast is all the way back, but this was a step in the right direction.
Midas Club on the other hand, not so much. Thunder Predator picked up right where they left off in the old patch, outdrafting and outplaying their opponents.
Hero of the Day:
We’ll pick back up with hero of the day next week, once we’ve had a little time to see how the pro meta adjusts to the new patch!
Bovada is still super limited in their lines, so again anything outside of the ML series bet is from Pinnacle.
The writeup for Cr4zy vs 4 Zoomers is the same as yesterday except by now Cr4zy have moved all the way to -125 favorites. At this point I think this is priced accurately, and we are no longer getting any value on Cr4zy, hopefully you got your bets in early!
Cr4zy (-105, +1.5 maps @ -311) vs
4 Zoomers (-130, -1.5 maps @ +244) 12:00 pm EST
These 2 teams just met on the 12th. Here is what I had to say about the matchup then:
These teams have met 3 times since late April, with 4 Zoomers up 2-1 in series victories. The game score in that time is 5-3 in favor of 4 Zoomers. It really should be 4-4 though, as Cr4zy blew a huge lead in Game 1 of their last meeting (a 2-0 win for 4 Zoomers). These two teams were pretty evenly matched before, and Hfn should be an upgrade over Ritsu. I’ll take the plus numbers on Cr4zy here.
The teams proceeded to play to a 1-1 tie. Everything I said then holds true now. When this line opened, Cr4zy were listed at +110 underdogs. I messaged in discord then because I was confident the line was going to move towards them. I actually think Cr4zy is the better team here with how good they’ve looked recently with Hfn. If you didn’t get your bet in at +110, I think the -105 line is still decent to bet, but if it moves any further I don’t think we are getting value anymore. I think this line should be about 55/45 in favor of Cr4zy, which would be -122.
Cr4zy +110 (1 units)
Thunder Predator (-215, -1.5 maps @ +182) vs
Beastcoast (+155, +1.5 maps @ -226) 3:00 pm EST
These teams have met twice recently, with Thunder Predator winning 2-0 both times. While Beastcoast did look great yesterday, they are playing without their carry, K1. I haven’t been able to figure out why, if he’s just taking a break or this is a permanent move, but either way I do expect it to catch up with them.
I think these odds are overreacting to yesterday’s performance from Beastcoast, and I’ll take Thunder Predator here.
Thunder Predator -215 (2 units)
Thunder Predator -1.5 @ +182 (.5 units)
Business Associates (TBD) vs
Business associates plays the winner of the Cr4zy vs 4 Zoomers series at 6:00pm EST. Check back after that first series ends for an update here!