Good morning. We have a new NA/SA tournament starting today, OGA Dota Pit Americas! It’s a very odd situation, as these teams will be playing immediately after a patch, with very little time to test new theories or strategies.
Recap from 7/15:
Record: 3-0 Net: +1.38 units
Overall: 10-5 +4.81 units
Yesterday was a truly bizarre day. Everything was normal up thru Game 1 of the Cr4zy vs Business Associates series. Cr4zy took Game 1 and our bets for the day were off to a good start. Then Valve dropped a patch, and not just a small patch, but a huge one. A ton of heroes were changed, including several that were pretty big reworks. Game 2 was delayed over an hour, but this new patch is going to take days to figure out. We got lucky in that Cr4zy were also able to pick up Game 2 putting us to a quick 3-0 on the day.
Thunder Predator vs 4 Zoomers ended up getting postponed, I assume because the tournament was over 2 hours behind schedule, mostly due to the long delay when the patch dropped. Bovada refunded all those bets, which led to us only having the 3-0 from Cr4zy on the day.
This was a weird and unique situation. Pre-covid, Valve waited until major tournaments ended to drop patches. However, there is quite literally always a tournament with top teams running currently, so Valve had less choice of when to put a patch out that didn’t disturb the pro scene. It’s unfortunate that it came out while the NA tournament was running, but they had to put it out at some point.
Now, the question becomes what does this mean for us moving forward? Basically for the next couple days what we are going to see is teams testing theories. They’ll barely have had a chance to try out newly reworked heroes, new team compositions, and new item builds. Some teams will act as though there wasn’t a patch and keep drafting exactly like they had previously. Other teams will test out their new ideas in the hopes that they are strong. Basically volatility is going to increase, as a weaker team could have an idea that’s really strong and a stronger team could have an idea that doesn’t work out so well.
Hero of the Day:
We are not going to have a hero of the day today. I haven’t had a chance to thoroughly look through the patch notes yet, so I don’t want to give false information on a hero. Also, the pro meta could change pretty significantly based on this patch.
Somewhat ironically, since I’ve only been doing this series for about a week, my Bloodseeker hero of the day post is already entirely outdated. He was one of the heroes that was reworked. It’ll be interesting to see whether the changes end up being a nerf or buff, particularly in the pro scene.
Moving on, the OGA Dota Pit Americas is a double elimination bracket. There is no group stage, we jump right into best of 3 series. There are 3 first round games today (7/16) and 1 tomorrow (7/17) I’ll write them all up here, as the odds are all out. Unfortunately, Bovada only has 1 bet, the odds to win the series straight up, for each series. I have no clue why their offering are so limited right now. I’ll use their series lines, any other odds you see will be from Pinnacle.
Infamous (+272, +1.5 maps @ -126) vs
Business Associates (-352, -1.5 maps @ +104) 12:00 pm EST
Note that all of these lines are from Pinnacle as this is currently off the board on Bovada. It’s off the board because they opened the line at (well I first saw it at at least) Infamous +550. It was quickly bet down to +380 before Bovada took it off the board. Why was it bet down so heavily? Well that’s because not only did Business Associates lose 2-0 to Cr4zy yesterday, they also lost 2-0 to Infinity.
EE (EternalEnvy, mid for Business Associates) is well known for throwing games his team should never lose, and winning games his team should never win, but this was a bad loss even for him. Game 1 they blew a pretty large lead, and game 2 they played even for about 20 minutes before getting crushed. Now I don’t know how much to attribute the bad day to rust, how much to attribute to the patch, and how much is actually an indictment of BA, but I do know that these losses caused money to come pouring in on Infinity.
I think we are almost at the point where we are actually getting value on BA here, as they are still the far superior team to Infamous, at least on paper. These teams haven’t actually played in the last few months. I’ve got my eye on the +104 number for the map spread, and if it gets to +115 or +120 I’d pull the trigger. For now though, I’m going to stay away, as it’s too late to get good value on Infamous.
Quincy Crew (-850, -1.5 maps @ -141) vs
Beastcoast (+450, +1.5 maps @ +116) 3:00 pm EST
This is another line that has moved towards the underdog since it opened. Beastcoast were as big as +650 underdogs at one point on Bovada. Quincy Crew are 3-0, with a map score of 6-1, against Beastcoast since April. As I’ve mentioned, Beastcoast have struggled this season, although they did recently 2-0 both Midas Club (which they should do) and 4 Zoomers (somewhat of a surprise).
Quincy Crew is definitely the more talented team on paper, but I don’t think the gap is as big as this line indicates, as the +450 is saying Beastcoast has an ~18% chance to win. I’d put the odds at closer to 25%. That plus the uncertainty of the new patch has me ready for a (small) underdog special here.
Beastcoast +450 (.25 units)
Beastcoast +1.5 maps @ +116 (.5 units)
Thunder Predator (-1200, -1.5 maps @ -206) vs
Midas Club (+550, +1.5 maps @ +167) 6:00 pm EST
Thunder Predator are 2-1-1 vs Midas Club (previously Furia) since the very end of March, with a game score of 5-4. The most recent game was a 2-0 sweep though, and it’s really be recently that Thunder Predator has found their form. Will that form continue with this new patch? It’s hard to say. One big edge Thunder Predator had in the last patch was drafting, they had a strong understanding of the meta, and how to draft. It remains to be seen how much the patch shakes up the pro meta, but it’s safe to say that no one will have totally figured that out yet, as this series will take place barely 24 hours after the patch dropped. I will again be taking a small shot on the underdog here, as the odds are just too heavily tilted towards Thunder Predator. The +550 gives Midas Club an implied win % of only just over 15%, which I think is simply too low given the match history and the new patch.
Midas Club +550 (.2 units)
Midas Club + 1.5 maps @ +167 (.5 units)
Cr4zy (-105, +1.5 maps @ -311) vs
4 Zoomers (-130, -1.5 maps @ +244) 12:00 pm EST 7/17
These 2 teams just met on the 12th. Here is what I had to say about the matchup then:
These teams have met 3 times since late April, with 4 Zoomers up 2-1 in series victories. The game score in that time is 5-3 in favor of 4 Zoomers. It really should be 4-4 though, as Cr4zy blew a huge lead in Game 1 of their last meeting (a 2-0 win for 4 Zoomers). These two teams were pretty evenly matched before, and Hfn should be an upgrade over Ritsu. I’ll take the plus numbers on Cr4zy here.
The teams proceeded to play to a 1-1 tie. Everything I said then holds true now. When this line opened, Cr4zy were listed at +110 underdogs. I messaged in discord then because I was confident the line was going to move towards them. I actually think Cr4zy is the better team here with how good they’ve looked recently with Hfn. If you didn’t get your bet in at +110, I think the -105 line is still decent to bet, but if it moves any further I don’t think we are getting value anymore. I think this line should be about 55/45 in favor of Cr4zy, which would be -122.
Cr4zy +110 (1 units)
Games start early today (noon EST), let’s try for a 4th straight profitable day!