After a couple of days of almost no games from the top teams in any region, Dota is back!
Recap from 7/12:
Record: 3-1 Net: +1.93 units
Overall: 7-5 +3.43 units
It feels like ages ago at this point, but Sunday was another very strong day for us.
Vira-Lata just simply cannot hang with this level of competition. They never really seemed like they had a chance in either game vs Midas Club, and Midas Club themselves are a bottom half team in this tournament.
Crazy split their series with 4 Zoomers, and since we were able to get plus odds, we came out a tiny bit ahead on that series. Lastly, Thunder Predator took care of business against Infamous, although game one was looking tenuous for a minute.
Hero of the Day:
Mirana: Right now Mirana is fairly popular in the pro scene, seeing a pick rate over 20% in the past month. It’s with good reason, as she is boasting a nearly 57% win rate over that time.
Let’s take a look at what’s making her so popular. Mirana’s abilities are:
Starstorm: Mirana calls down meteors in a medium sized area around her, hitting all enemy units (creeps and heroes) within range. Whichever unit is closest to her is hit twice, with the 2nd attack doing 75% damage. This ability is a decent nuke, and is strong for bursting stunned heroes as well as flash farming creeps.
Sacred Arrow: Speaking of stunned heroes, with Sacred Arrow Mirana shoots an arrow, that if it hits an enemy hero they are stunned. The length of the stun increases with how far away the arrow was shot from, stunning for 5 whole seconds at max range. Arrow is a skill shot (meaning you have to aim it manually vs clicking on a hero and having it automatically target them), but when paired with another stun or slow, can be a death sentence for an enemy hero. Sacred arrow also instantly kills creeps, so it can be used to kill catapult creeps and slow down pushes.
Leap: As the title implies, Mirana leaps forward a medium distance. Mirana has 3 charges of leap, and can leap up/down terrain. Leap is a great tool for Mirana to either initiate on the enemy or escape from the enemy, and makes her hard to kill without significant lockdown. Leap combined with Starstorm allows Mirana to push waves in what would normally be dangerous areas of the map.
Moonlight Shadow: Mirana casts a spell that turns herself and all allied heroes invisible for 18 seconds. This is a powerful tool for initiating against an unsuspecting enemy, or for running away from a bad fight. At level 25 she has a talent that lowers the cooldown to 40 seconds, meaning her whole team can be invisible nearly half the time. Attacking does temporarily break the invisibility.
Mirana is strong right now because of her lockdown, waveclear, and ability to get her and her teammates into and out of fights safely. She has at times been played as a mid, but you mostly see her as a Position 4. She roams around the map in the early game, providing kill threat whereever she goes. Late game she is useful to push waves, and she still does decent damage. A long distance arrows is useful throughout the game. Mirana is fairly squishy, so if you can catch her she isn’t too hard to kill. Good luck catching her though.
Let’s take a look at the actual slate.
Right now Bovada only has 3 of the 4 matchups listed, so the odds you see here from Infinity vs Business Associates are from Pinnacle. Also, as some of you may have noticed on Sunday, the schedule will sometimes be moved around to accommodate the teams, so make sure to get your bets in plenty early in case the order of games changes.
Vira-Lata Carmelo (+475 G1, +800 G2, +0.5 maps @+375) vs
Quincy Crew (-850 G1, -2500 G2, -0.5 maps @ -650) 2:00pm EST
As I mentioned up top, Vira-Lata Carmelo simply cannot compete at this level. Quincy Crew are the best team in this tournament, and are fresh off of winning the BTS Pro Series Season 2: Americas. The only way I see Quincy Crew dropping a game is if they don’t take the game seriously and decide to mess around in the draft and in game. I doubt that happens though, as this is their first series of the tournament and they’ll want to get off to a strong start.
The problem here is the odds. -650 are such long odds that you have to bet a ton to win anything of substance. The -650 implies that there is a nearly 87% chance that Quincy Crew wins 2-0. Honestly I think that’s a little low, but I also don’t think it’s worth it to bet.
My Pick:
No action
Business Associates (-140 G1, -140 G2, -1.5 maps @ +185) vs
Cr4zy (Even G1, Even G2, +1.5 maps @ -265) 4:00 pm EST
These teams have met 5 times since the beginning of April, with Cr4zy up 3-2 in series and 7-6 in games. Those series were with 2 different Carry players, and now Hfn will be the 3rd for Cr4zy. I think he’s the best of the group, and Cr4zy have started to gel recently.
Business Associates for some reason do not have a mid or position 4 listed on Liquipedia, but according to their twitter on July 3rd; they’ll be keeping the same roster from previous tournaments. They haven’t played as a team (outside of any scrims they’ve taken part in) since June 27th. That means they have yet to play a pro game on patch 7.27, which featured some fairly decent sized changes to items and overall gameplay (heroes themselves were untouched), and could also be a bit rusty.
In case I haven’t yet made it clear, I’m on Cr4zy here. I think they should be (small) favorites here, and will take them at even money.
My Picks:
Cr4zy +1.5 @ -265 (1 unit)
Cr4zy G1 @ even (.5 units)
Cr4zy G2 @ even (.5 units)
Infinity (+539 G1, +459 G2, +0.5 maps @ +253) vs
Business Associates (-949 G1, -767 G2, -0.5 maps @ -367) 6:00 pm EST
Note again that these odds are from Pinnacle, keep an eye on Bovada for if/when they get posted there.
Infinity are similar to Vira-Lata in that they are taking a step up in competition and cannot really compete at this level. They at least have taken a game off of Beastcoast and play in tier 2 within South America normally. They also have mostly players who have at least been around the T1 South American scene.
That said, I do not expect them to take a game off of Business Associates here. Again though, the odds are just too steep to bet on BA here. Especially with what I outlined above about this being their first day playing official matches on a new patch. That combined with EternalEnvy’s (BA’s mid) propensity to throw games that his team should easily win, I will be staying away. If the Bovada line is less juiced towards BA I may take a shot there. I’ll be sure to post in Discord if I do.
My Pick:
No action
Thunder Predator (-115 G1, -115 G2, +0.5 Maps @ -335) vs
4 Zoomers (-120 G1, -120 G2, -0.5 Maps @ +230) 8:00 pm EST
When I first glanced at this matchup, I thought the +230 for 4 Zoomers was good value. However, after I did a bit of digging, I don’t actually think that’s the case.
Since the beginning of May, Thunder Predator is 3-0 against 4 Zoomers, with a 7-1 map score (1 of the series was a Bo5). I went back and skimmed through the Vods of games from the 2 most recent series (5 wins for Thunder Predator and the lone loss). None of the 5 wins seemed to be a fluke, as TP consistently out-drafted and then out-executed 4 Zoomers. The lone TP loss was a weird draft where they took a position 4 clinkz and 4 Zoomers lane-swapped, putting Nature’s Prophet safelane as pos 2 while the pos 1 Morphling went mid. The TP safelane vs 4 Zoomers offlane matchup in particular has been a problem for 4 Zoomers. Time after time Mnz ends up the most farmed hero on the map even when he plays heroes that aren’t strong laners.
I like Thunder Predator here, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them 2-0 4 Zoomers.
My Picks:
Thunder Predator +1.5 maps @ -335 (1 unit)
Thunder Predator G1 @ -115 (.5 units)
Thunder Predator G2 @ -115 (.5 units)
