Welcome to another edition of my Dota Betting Analysis!
Recap from 7/11:
Record: 3-0 Net: +3.45 units
Overall: 4-4 +1.50 units
We got back on track yesterday as Ehome was able to take down CDEC 2-0. As I mentioned in my writeup, these lines were just off, as these are two evenly matched teams. Ehome being +195 was crazy, and this paid off nicely for us. These are the type of lines we can take advantage of. Let’s see what we can look to exploit for the NA slate on Sunday (7/12), but first, our hero of the day.
Hero of the Day:
Nature’s Prophet: NP is super popular right now in the pro meta. In the past he’s seen play at virtually every position, right now he seems to be more popular as a core, but he can still be played in a number of roles.
Similar to Anti-Mage yesterday, core Nature’s Prophet excels by farming faster than anyone else on the map, and always being ahead of the enemy cores. His abilities are:
Sprout: NP creates a ring of trees around a point or unit that last for several seconds (6 at the spell’s max level). Sprout is useful both offensively and defensively. NP can use sprout to: block a choke-point to prevent the enemy team from either escaping or engaging, trap an enemy hero inside of the sprout where you and your allies can kill them while they are stuck (works best on melee heroes since they won’t be able to hit you back), and cast it around himself to prevent the enemy from attacking him as he teleports away. It is worth noting that there is a very cheap (<200 gold) item called a quelling blade that can be used to instantly cut down a tree, and therefore making it possible to get in and out of the circle of trees. Most heroes do eventually get rid of their quelling blade (it is popular on melee carries) to free up a spot in their inventory though, so sprout can actually become more effective later in the game in certain situations.
Teleportation: Nature’s Prophet can teleport anywhere on the map using his second ability. He can instantly join teamfights wherever they break out, often times TP’ing behind enemy lines so he can kill the squishy backliners. This means that NP’s team can farm more efficiently throughout the game, as he can be off pushing a side lane or farming a remote area of the jungle, yet be there in time for the fight to start. Teleportation is only on a 20 second cooldown once you get the spell to level 4 (it’s max). Plus at Level 20 NP has a cooldown reduction talent that drops it to 16 seconds, and then a talent at Level 25 that completely removes the cooldown. Plus, the ability does not share a cooldown with the teleport scroll. Basically this means NP has 2 teleports available, meaning even in the early game he will almost always have a means to TP.
Nature’s Call: NP turns a group of trees into Treant’s that he controls. He creates 2 Treants at lvl 1 of the spell up to 5 Treants at level 4 of the spell. He also has a talent available at Level 15 to make up to 9 Treants. The Treants do a moderate amount of damage in the early game, but they are more useful for their ability to take damage than to deal damage. Treants can be used to take towers very early in the game. It takes several tower shots to kill a Treant, meaning everyone else can attack the tower for longer while it is busy killing the Treants. Also, NP can use them to farm safely, he can stay far back in lane while he Treants contest for last hits and/or harass enemy heroes, and use the Treants to tank damage from jungle camps while he farms. Skilled players can also use the Treants to block the paths of enemies, slowing the enemy heroes down so that NP’s team can catch and kill them.
Nature’s Wrath: Nature’s Prophet casts a spell that damages every enemy hero, creep, and neutral creep visible to his team on the map, increase in damage for every unit it hits. NP’s ult is useful both for fighting and for farming. Many NP’s essentially cast this spell every time is off cooldown, as you get a large amount of farm every time you use it, plus you can do decent damage to heroes. NP picks the unit the spell starts on, and from there it bounces around the map. If a hero is one of the last units the spell hits, it can do a large chunk of damage.
NP is strong in the pro meta right now because he is good in all stages of the game, and is useful in both teamfighting and pushing objectives. He also recently got a boost, as his global TP ability (and ability to TP twice in a row) was effectively buffed. Until recently, any hero could buy themselves the ability to teleport twice in a row, as the TP scroll and boots of travel (an item that allows you to teleport to friendly creeps instead of just structures) did not share a cooldown. This was changed in a recent patch, and now they share a cooldown. This means that most heroes can no longer have a double TP, which gives NP a big advantage in mobility. I’d expect a nerf to be coming to NP soon, as he holds over a 53% win rate even with being picked over 27% of the time. Until then, NP will be a staple in pro matches.
On to Sunday’s matches!
As I am writing this (5:00pm EST on July 11th) Bovada only has 2 of the 4 games listed, and Pinnacle has none. That’s okay though, as there is a bet for each matchup posted so far that I like. I’ll try to put out an update if and when lines become available for the other to games. The two games currently listed are:
4 Zoomers (-180 G1, -170 G2, -1.5 maps @+145) vs
Cr4zy (+130 G1, +125 G2, +1.5 maps @ -200) 2:00 pm EST
Cr4zy looked much improved on Friday vs Infamous, while 4 Zoomers lost 0-2 to a Beastcoast squad that had been floundering of late. It really looked like Cr4zy is starting to gel with Hfn.
These teams have met 3 times since late April, with 4 Zoomers up 2-1 in series victories. The game score in that time is 5-3 in favor of 4 Zoomers. It really should be 4-4 though, as Cr4zy blew a huge lead in Game 1 of their last meeting (a 2-0 win for 4 Zoomers). These two teams were pretty evenly matched before, and Hfn should be an upgrade over Ritsu. I’ll take the plus numbers on Cr4zy here.
Cr4zy @ +130 G1 (.5 units)
Cr4zy @ +125 G2 (.5 units)
Vira-Lata Caramelo (+245 G1, +245 G2, +0.5 maps @ +115) vs
Midas Club (-360 G1, -360 G2, -0.5 maps @ -160) 4:00 pm EST
I’ll be honest with you guys, before this tournament I had never heard of Vira-Lata Caramelo. They were a last minute replacement after EG dropped the day before the tournament started. This will be a huge step up in competition for them, and they weren’t even beating their previous competition. Their last two matches were a 2-0 loss to a team called “Pacific E-sports” and a 1-1 tie vs “Vicious Gaming”. Neither of those teams are anything close to a T1 team within South America. Vira-Lata doesn’t have a page on Liquipedia, and their carry, Arms, is the only player with anything on his page.
These two teams met once back in March when Midas Club was playing for the Furia Organization, a 2-0 stomp for Midas Club. I expect a similar stomp today as these two teams are simply in a different league. The 61.5% chance of a 2-0 implied by the odds feels far too low to me, I’d put it up closer to 80%. There is a small chance Vira-Lata steals a game with some cheese strategy, but even then the Midas Club players are just much better.
Midas Club -0.5 maps @ -160 (2 units)
Lines are finally out for the other 2 series. They are:
Midas Club (+200 G1, +180 G2, +0.5 maps @ -120) vs
Beastcoast (-280 G1, -260 G2, -0.5 maps @ -115) 6:00 pm EST
These two teams have only played once recently, a 1-1 back in mid June. Going back to April, when Midas Club was still playing for the Furia Org, they met 3 more times, all Beastcoast victories. Beastcost did drop a game in two of those 3 wins (they were all Bo3s). With that plus their recent form, I don’t trust Beastcoast to win 2-0 here. This actually opened at +110 for Beastcoast to get the 2-0, which I liked, but in the couple hours since I first saw the line until now (almost 2:00pm EST) the line has moved too far for me to want to bet it.
Thunder Predator (-385 G1, -400 G2, -1.5 maps @ -180) vs
Infamous (+260 G1, +270 G2, +1.5 maps @ +130) 8:00 pm EST
Thunder Predator have looked like the clear cut team to beat in South America of late. From draft to late game they’ve looked great, going 7-2-1 (W-D-L) in their last 10 series, with the only loss (and one of the ties) coming to EG. These teams have met twice since the last day of April, both 2-0 wins for Thunder Predator.
Infamous have either swept or been swept in their last 11 series (not including Bo1s). I don’t put a ton of stock in this, but it does suggest that Infamous either shows up big time or not at all. I’d lean towards not at all today as all of Infamous’ recent wins have come against inferior competition, and they’ve gotten 2-0’d whenever they step up to the top NA or SA teams.
I don’t love the line here, as -180 implies a ~64% chance Thunder Predator gets the 2-0. I think that’s a little bit low, but not far off like some of the other series we’ve been seeing recently. I’ll still take Thunder Predator here, but only for 1 unit.
Thunder Predator -1.5 maps @ -180 (1 Unit)