Hi again, Chris here bringing you another edition of my Dota picks.
Recap from Day 1:
Record: 1-2 Net: +.05 units
Overall: 1-2 +.05 units
We came out just barely positive on the day. Infamous dominated Midas Club, cruising to a 2-0 victory. Beastcoast on the other hand, yikes. They looked lost both in the draft and in game, getting thoroughly stomped by Thunder Predator. This was a very concerning loss for them as they were never really in either game.
Hero of the Day:
Queen of Pain is today’s hero of the day. She is the most picked hero in pro matches of the last 30 days, and is second highest in pick + ban percent. Even with all the play she holds a very strong win rate of 55%.
Queen of Pain has traditionally been play as a mid, but she is also seeing pro play as a Pos 4. This versatility has helped make her such a valuable pickup. QoP is strong throughout the game, able to provide annoying harass in lane and high burst damage in the mid to late game.
Her 4 abilities are all active. They are:
Shadow Strike: QoP throws a poisoned dagger at the enemy, which causes damage, both initially and every 3 seconds and slows for 15(!) seconds. This ability is incredibly annoying in lane. The damage is significant in the early game, but the slow is what makes this ability so crazy. The slow last for 15 seconds and even at lvl 1 the cooldown is only 16 seconds. Queen of Pain can basically permanently slow you during the laning stage. Movement speed is incredibly important in Dota, particularly in the pros, so this ability by itself makes QoP strong in the early game (and also why she’s viable as a position 4 right now).
Blink: Remember in my intro when I told you about the blink dagger item which essentially gives heroes as offensive only flash every 20 or so seconds? Well QoP has that built into her kit as an ability, only better. At this abilities max lvl, the cooldown on QoPs blink is only 6 seconds! And, it’s even better than a blink dagger because it’s not put on cooldown when QoP takes damage from an enemy hero. The only thing that stops QoPs blink is if she is silenced, stunned, rooted, or leashed. What I’m saying is that Queen of Pain can use her blink defensively as well as offensively.
Scream of Pain: QoP screams, doing damage to all enemies (whether or not she can see them) in a medium (525 units, Dota’s in game measurement for distance) sized circle around her. This ability for QoP is useful throughout the game. It’s a medium amount of damage throughout the game, helps QoP farm, and can be great for finishing off kills against invisible heroes as they try to escape. Plus, once QoP hits level 25, so late-game, has a talent that makes it so that any enemy hit by Scream of Pain is feared (causing them to run towards their fountain) for 1.2 seconds. That may not sound like much but it can totally change the course of a teamfight in the lategame, as it can buy time and/or disrupt how the enemy is trying to position.
Sonic Wave: QoP’s ultimately is Sonic Wave. QoP casts a large “sound wave” in front of her that causes damage as well as knocks back enemies in front of Queen of Pain. This ability is great for several reasons. One is that the knockback can keep enemies from getting close enough to stun of kill QoP. Another is that it is a high amount of damage throughout the game. The most important part of that damage, though, is that it is pure damage and pierces spell immunity. What pure damage means is that it ignores any armor or magic resistance the enemy has. If a spell does 100 pure damage, it means it does 100 damage to the enemy hero no matter what. Physical damage (think right clicking someone) is affected by armor, so even if my attack damage is 100 I might only do 60 damage when I hit someone because of their armor. Magic damage and magic resist work the same way.
All of these abilities may make it seen like QoP is OP, however she does have 1 major drawback. She is extremely squishy, aka easy to kill. If she gets caught with a stun she can typically be killed quite easily. Pros are usually great at positioning, which is what makes QoP such a strong pick for them.
On to today’s actual slate. Again Bovada has very little available in terms of lines, and it’s the same Bo2 format as before.
There is only 1 bet today that I actually think we are getting any value on, and that’s this one:
Infamous (+180 G1, +165 G2, +0.5 maps @ -115) vs
Cr4Zy (-250 G1, -235 G2, -0.5 maps @-115)
Yesterday Infamous stomped Midas Club 2-0. Cr4zy went 1-1 vs Midas Club, including a Game 1 loss that was very concerning to me. Cr4zy actually had a lead for almost the whole early and mid game, before slowly letting it slip away for a Midas Club victory. This is a team that recently changed their carries, with Hfn technically playing as a stand-in at the moment. Blowing a lead like they did, especially against a weak opponent like Midas Club, tells me that they don’t yet have great synergy, as Hfn was never able to carry that late game like he was supposed to. Game 2 Cr4zy stomped their lanes so the late game never game to be, as Midas Club actually gg’ed out with all 3 of their T2 towers still standing (hey I warned you it happens sometimes). I don’t think Cr4zy will be able to run over their lanes against Infamous like they did in game 2, and I think Infamous takes at least one game here, if not both.
Infamous G1 @ +180 (1 unit)
Infamous G2 @ +165 (1 unit)
Like I said this is the only match where I think we are getting any value, and I do think these lines are a bit off, so I’m going with a full unit on each game instead of the typical half unit. That’s it for today as I think the rest of the games the odds are close enough to accurate that I don’t have a strong opinion on either side.