Dota summit playoffs continue, with 2 more series on tap for NA/SA.
Winter Split Total: 2-5 (-3.15 units)
11/4 Total: 2-4 (-2.15 units)
We had a bit of a rough day yesterday. Beastcoast looked great and rolled to an easy 2-0, but outside of that everything that could go wrong did. Catjammers were really a disappointment. In Game 1 they got outdrafted pretty hard, the PL had an absolutely free game, and in Game 2 they just didn’t show up, losing in only 23 minutes after getting stomped in all 3 lanes. Meanwhile, 4 Zoomers simply could not deal with Leshrac. They got crushed by it Game 1, as Ryoya went 14-0-4 KDA on it. 4 Zoomers responded in Game 2 by…letting him have it again. In a shocking turn of events, he again dominated, going 19-3-15 in Game 2.
Anyways, on to Thursday where we can hopefully turn things around. The games are still best of 3, the series are:
Quincy Crew (-1000, -1.5 maps @ -210) vs
Thunder Predator (+525, +1.5 maps @ +150) 5:00 pm EST
These teams have met 9 times over the course of online play since the start of Covid. Over that time Quincy Crew is dominating the series 8-0-1 (W-L-T). The map score is 19-3 (2 of the series were in grand finals so they were Bo5). Nothing has changed to make me think Thunder Predator will win any more often than they have been, if anything they’ve been playing slightly worse lately.
Quincy Crew should win 80-85% of maps in this matchup. If you take the 85% number, there’s a bit of value on the Quincy Crew side (72% chance they sweep vs the 67% implied by -210), however if you take the 80% the value disappears, as the sweep chance drops to 64% compared to implied odds of 67%. There’s no value on the Thunder Predator side either, as +150 implies a 40% chance they win a map, and even the more favorable end of my range only gives them a 36% chance to take (at least) a game. I’m going to err on the side of caution here aka the 80% side of my range, as the online nature of play adds a little bit of extra randomness, so I’ll be staying away in this spot.
4 Zoomers (-175, -1.5 maps @ +175) vs
Infamous (+125, +1.5 maps @ -245) 8:00 pm EST
These teams have met 8 times since online only play began, with 4 Zoomers leading the series 6-1-1 (W-L-T). The map score is 14-4 in 4 Zoomers favor. The Infamous series win and the tied series did both come in the last 3 matchups these teams have played, but even then each of those series featured a massive, 20k gold lead or higher, throw by 4 Zoomers. Now, as we saw against Beastcoast the other day, closing games has been an issue for them of late, but they are clearly the much better team here. They should win 70-75% of the maps against this Infamous team.
Even if we use the 70% end, that gives 4 Zoomers a 49% chance to win this series 2-0. +175 implies a 36.4% chance. That’s a lot of value. The moneyline is a similar story, but not quite so extreme. -175 implies a 63.6% chance 4 Zoomers gets the victory, while using a 70% chance per game comes out to a ~71% chance they win the series. The map spread in particular is some of the best value we’ll see, even with how often lines are off in Dota.
4 Zoomers -175 (2 units)
4 Zoomers -1.5 maps +175 (1 unit)