The playoffs of Dota Summit 13 kick off Wednesday, with the lower bracket kicking off.
Winter Split Total: 0-1 (-1 units)
We had some pretty tough luck to start the winter split. 4 Zoomers thoroughly dominated the series, both games 1 and 2. Until they had a massive throw in game 2. It’s unfortunate, but ultimately I think we had good value on the bet, and I’d make it again every time. Oh well, on to Wednesday.
The matchups Wednesday are best of 3’s, so no more of the Bo2 nonsense. The games are:
Beastcoast (-230, -1.5 maps @ +140) vs
Team Brasil (+165, +1.5 maps @ -195) 4:00 pm EST
One quick note before we dive in is that the schedule is different depending on where you look. Most places have both lower bracket games starting at 4:00 pm EST, which doesn’t make any sense. Some have one of the upper bracket games Wednesday, some don’t. As best as I can tell it should be the 2 lower bracket games Wednesday and the 2 upper bracket games Thursday. Anyways, on to the analysis.
These teams have met 3 times since Team Brasil came onto the scene as a team. Beastcoast has won 2-0 twice, and they tied 1-1 the other series. That’s good for a 5-1 map record. Beastcoast have their ups and down, but at their core they are a much better team than Team Brasil. There’s value to be had here on both the moneyline and the map spread. Beastcoast should win roughly 70% of maps, which would mean they have a ~49% chance to win 2-0, which the +140 only implies a ~42% chance. This also gives a ~78% chance to win the series, while the -230 only implies ~70%. I’m all over Beastcoast here.
Beastcoast -230 (1.5 units)
Beastcoast -1.5 maps +140 (.5 units)
Catjammers (-200, -1.5 maps @ + 155) vs
Infamous (+145, +1.5 maps @ -215) 4:00 pm EST
Catjammers (dating back to when this roster was playing for the Crazy org) are 4-2 in series against Infamous so far this year. Interestingly, every single one of those series have been a 2-0, so the map score is 8-4 in Catjammers favor. The two Infamous wins are in the last 3 series, but I wouldn’t put too much weight on that, particularly the most recent one which was Catjammer’s first series in over a month. I still think Catjammer’s should win ~65% of individual maps, just as they have so far this year in their matchups. This would give them a ~42% chance to win 2-0, while the +155 implies a ~39% chance, so there’s a bit of value here. -200 implies a ~67% chance to win the series, by my math it should be closer to 71.5%. I’ll be on Catjammers here.
Catjammers -200 (1.5 units)
Catjammers -1.5 maps @ +155 (.5 units)