This day could’ve been a lot worse. Somehow I managed to cash 1 of my 50/50’s despite having my FNC 3 stack get swept including a 25 point performance from Mezii, AND S1mple scored just about his floor for a Navi win. Low(ish) ownership on Broky really saved me there.

For my multi-lineup, this was actually my best day yet, which isn’t saying much. I ended up with 0 B1t, which was somewhat of a mistake, but I’m not beating myself up too much. Normally in my model I weight 3 month stats and 1 month stats, with the 3 month counting for more but 1 month counting for enough to matter. I obviously wasn’t doing that at the start of the group since no one had played at all. Because of all the teams in this group that had made roster changes, I wanted to bring the 1 month numbers back in quickly, so I turned my model back to normal before this slate. What I ignored in doing so was that B1t’s numbers were way down in 1 month data because of his 1 horrible series against B1g, since that was 1/3 of his recent games played at the time. I went from getting 10-15% of him before I turned my model back to normal to 0%. I don’t know that I would’ve hit the exact right lineup had I adjusted to make sure I got some of him, but this was definitely an oversight on my part.

1 Lineup – Entries: $20, Winnings: $10, New Bankroll: $124.50

Multi-Lineup – Entries: $20, Winnings: $10.50, New Bankroll: $47.50

On to Day 5

 

 

Day 5

 

1 Lineup – Current Bankroll: $124.50, Today’s Entries: $20

Contests: 2 $5 double ups (16 entrants each), 1 $5 Triple up (20 entrants), 1 $5 Single Entry GPP (118 entrants)

My Lineup:

If you don’t have this lineup or something very close to it in cash today, you should take a serious look at your process. You can definitely justify a similar lineup with S1mple at captain and a downgrade to B1t and/or Frozen, but outside of that this was very clearly the “optimal” build for this slate. Brollan and Mezii are simply mispriced, and that lets you fit an excellent lineup around them.

Multi-Lineup – Current Bankroll: $47.50, Today’s Entries: $20

Contest: 20 entries in $1 GPP (20 entry max, 1486 total entries)

Here’s how I’m building on Tuesday:

3 Stacks
Team % of Lineups (Number of lineups)
Navi 20% (4)
Faze 10% (2)
FNC 20% (4)
Mouz 20% (4)
Big 25% (5)
EG 5% (1)

 

2 Stacks
Team % of Lineups (Number of lineups)
Navi 20% (4)
Faze 15% (3)
FNC 20% (4)
Mouz 15% (3)
Big 20% (4)
EG 10% (2)

While Brollan is definitely a free square or close to it (and I do have him in 70% of my lineups), I didn’t want to overdo it by too much for GPP with Fnatic stacks. There’s still a 40% chance they lose this game according to the odds. I wanted to make sure I was over the field on both Faze and Big as my expectation was they’d go under-owned. 45% Big stacks and 25% Faze stacks should be enough to be over the field on both teams (yes the slate has started as I write this but I haven’t really looked at ownership data yet.)

Good luck to everyone playing!

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