We’ve got another 2 game slate as the playoffs roll on at ESL. Lock is still 10:00 am EDT, and the games are:
OG (56% implied win probability) vs NiP
Gambit (65%) vs Vitality
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool appears to be correct.
I’m again going to take something of a stand against Vegas on this slate, but this time only for 1 of the 2 games. I think OG should be much bigger favorites against NiP than they are, somewhere in the 65% or so range. OG have looked great this tournament and frankly I don’t know how NiP are winning matches. They look terrible for long stretches. I’m going to be heavy on OG for this slate.
In the other game, I’ll have a good mix of Gambit and Vitality. What I’m going to stay away from, though, is one off Zywoo*. I expect that to be extremely popular so I’m either going to stack Zywoo with at least one of his teammates or not play him. Non-Zywoo Vitality will likely go under-owned. I’m also going to try to stay away from having too much Nafany. Sure, he has upside in a stomp since he entries all the time, but I expect his price to bring his ownership far too high on this slate.
*The exception to my one-off Zywoo avoidance is one-off Zywoo at captain. This should be a low owned move, and if Vitality lose (or even win) a close series Zywoo + 2 Gambit could easily be the top 3 scorers. I of course also like Zywoo at captain in Vitality stacks.
From Gambit, I expect Ax1le to go slightly overlooked at captain as people either pay up for Sh1ro or down for Hobbit, he’s my favorite for GPPs.
I buried the lede a bit though, as Mantuu is actually my favorite captain on the slate. He’s been balling out at this event, coming in only .01 FP/r behind Zywoo at .87 (most top players are around .75) FP/r. He shouldn’t have crazy ownership as I imagine most people will go with Zywoo or Gambit, I’ll be loaded up.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!