Before we dive into Wednesday, I wanted to give a quick shoutout to the ownership leverage king himself, our very own Hodge for his takedown on Tuesday. Awesome lineup man! Now, Wednesday we have another 4 game ESL Pro League Slate and another $10k up top in the big GPP. The games are:
Complexity (66% implied win probability) vs Spirit
NiP (57%) vs Mouz
Astralis (58%) vs Vitality
Furia (87%) vs Triumph
This is a bit of a weird slate, pricing looks tough on the surface, but when dig into it for a minute it’s actually pretty loose because of a few weird/mispriced players. For example, if you just look at the prices you’d see that there’s someone at 10k, but then you look at the name and it’s…arT? On a slate with BlameF and Zywoo (not to mention Astralis and the rest of arT’s teammates??? Now, arT helped me (and whoever else read the article that day) a bunch of money a few weeks back and his insane aggro play style is fun to watch so I’ll always have a soft spot for the guy, but he should never be the most expensive player on this slate. Glaive has fragged out in his first 2 matches back for Astralis and is now…their most expensive player at $8.6k?
Meanwhile, Device is all the way down at $7.0k and Magisk is only $7.8k. Poizon sits at $7.6k and Konfig $7.0k. Hen1 is only $7.2k, Vini (yes Vini has been putting up numbers for long enough to get included here) is only $6.4k.
Mix these ingredients together and you get a recipe for chalk. Furia in particular (with the exception of arT) should be the mega chalk, as they as massive favorites against Triumph. I’d expect Complexity to also come in very chalky as they are the 2nd biggest favorites on the slate. The Astralis/Vitality game is something of an unstoppable force meets immovable object in terms of ownership, as the DFS communities (fully warranted) love of Zywoo meets an underpriced favorite that projects well. I expect Zywoo to be near Device’s ownership but Magisk and Glaive well above anyone else from Vitality. The NiP/Mouz game is likely to go largely overlooked. No one from that game is in the Top 10 of our projections, which makes sense as the best fp/r over the last 3 months from that game is Plopski at .64, putting him at 12th on the slate. Mouz meanwhile have 4 out of the bottom 6 players on the slate in fp/r over the past 3 months (the other 2 are from Triumph, although to be fair to Bymas some of those numbers are from his time with FaZe), which is so bad it’s almost impressive.
As always the question is how do we use this information to put ourselves in a position to take down a tournament?
Let’s start with Furia since they are likely to be the mega-chalk. I would be very surprised if the winning lineup Wednesday does not have at least 1 Furia player on it. The question is which one(s). I expect the ownership to be Hen1 > Kscerato > Vini = Yuurih >>> arT. All of those 1st 4 should be over 20% owned, and Hen1 and Kscerato could clear 40% each. Furia’s scoring is the most flat I can recall seeing a team. Over the past 3 months everyone is between .66 fp/r (arT) and .51 fp/r (Vini). Over the past month everyone is between .65 fp/r (Kscerato) and .59 fp/r (Yuurih). What I am saying is any given day any one of these players could be the top fragger. Give me the one’s with lower ownership. I plan on jamming in a bunch of arT tomorrow, and will likely fully fade Hen1. If Hen1 goes off, so be it, I would rather take the chance to put myself ahead of a huge chunk of the field. I have 0 interest in the Triumph side of that game.
From the Complexity side of their game playing oBo is the way to be different. I expect it to be BlameF + poizon and/or Konfig that’s popular, with oBo significantly lower owned than at least BlameF and poizon. While oBo has been the 2nd best fragger for Col lately, BlameF is the clear number 1, so I don’t love the play of coming down from BlameF to oBo, but if I can fit it, playing both should be a low owned combo. The Spirit side of that game should come in with low ownership, although Mir’s explosion the other day may draw a little ownership his way. Spirit are definitely “live” aka they have a real shot to win, and if they do a mir + idisbalance pair should score very well.
The Astralis game gives us another chance to be differentiate ourselves. Glaive has only played 2 matches in the last 3 months, totaling 116 rounds. His stats in those matches are outstanding, and he projects really well because of it. If you shift to 6 months though, his stats become far more pedestrian. Glaive is an all-time great IGL, but traditionally hasn’t been a top end fantasy player. I’m expecting some regression here and will be fading Glaive, whom I expect to be fairly popular even though he is priced way up (for him). I’ll have plenty of Device and Magisk, but I won’t be risking Bubz and am unlikely to play Dupreeh (es3tag isn’t in the player pool). Zywoo should come in less popular than usually (like 40% owned instead of 60+) and in lineups I don’t play Astralis I will almost definitely have Zywoo. Pairing him with a teammate should be fairly unique as I expect we see a lot of Zywoo one off’s Wednesday.
Lastly, if you are feeling brave, stacking either side of the NiP/Mouz game should be low owned. On the Mouz side Bymas has looked decent since making his debut and if you can stomach it, Karrigan has actually been the one awp’ing most of the time since they benched Woxic, not ChrisJ. For NiP; Plopski, Rez, Hampus, and Nawwk have all had similar numbers since the player break (scoring in that order). Any 2 of those 4 make for fine plays, as they are the favorites in this matchup. Hampus in particular is an interesting salary saver at only $5.2k.
As he is every time he is on the slate, Zywoo is the first player I will mention here. While the Astralis matchup definitely lowers the likelihood Zywoo reaches his ceiling, it doesn’t lower his ceiling at all. Now, I wouldn’t go crazy and lock him or anything, but as long as I’m making 10+ lineups you can bet that I’m going to have some Zywoo captain.
From Astralis, both Device and Magisk are solid captains, although I do expect both to be popular.
Hen1 will also likely be popular, I prefer Kscerato, Yuurih, and even arT if I can fit it from Furia. Kscerato will probably have decent ownership himself, but it should be less than Hen1’s.
From Col, Poizon will probably be the popular choice given his price, but I’ll go out of my way to fit in BlameF for most of my Col captain exposure (maybe a little oBo if I can find a way to make oBo cpt work with BlameF).
On the other side of that matchup, Mir has best score of the slate upside so that’s where I’ll go if I play Spirit.
From the NiP/Mouz series, it’ll be either Ropz or Plopski for me. Ropz has great upside but it’s hard to put up insane numbers if your team gets crushed all the time. If they can win or keep it close though, Ropz definitely could put up the top score on the slate. Plopski would need to increase his kill share to put up a top score even in a win, but if anyone on NiP is going to do that it’s likely to be him. They are generally super balanced though so I won’t go overboard on Plopski captain lineups.
That’s it for today, good luck Wednesday!