After Monday off, ESL Pro League is back on Tuesday with 4 more games. They are:
Ence (62% implied win probability) vs Godsent
G2 (56%) vs Heroic
Fnatic (55%) vs Faze
Gen.G (56%) vs Chaos
This is a really peculiar slate for a couple of reasons. One, pricing is back to being super loose. You can pretty much play whoever you want without needing to dip into super low cost value plays. The second, and probably biggest reason, is that all 4 games have pretty tight odds. Ence are the biggest favorites on the slate with only a ~62% implied win probability. The third reason is that there aren’t any true DFS stars on this slate, at least not currently with how Niko (from Faze) has struggled of late. All of this combined means that ownership is hard to predict and will likely be very spread out. If I had to guess, I’d expect Ence, G2, and Gen.G to be the most commonly played teams, but I don’t think any of them will be super chalky.
Beyond that, I really don’t have a strong feeling one way or another on any of these games. Ence have looked great to start the Pro League while Godsent have struggled a bit, but you can easily argue that Godsent’s roster is just as good if not better on paper. Heroic have looked lost at times without their coach (suspended for abusing the bug that allowed him to see the enemies spawn at the beginning of rounds), but also they just beat G2 on August 28th (that was with their coach participating in the match, but not cheating as far as I am aware). Fnatic and Faze both have looked terrible lately, it’s hard to have confidence in either of them. Gen.G struggled to get a 2-0 against a Triumph team that has otherwise looked terrible while Chaos nearly took down Team Liquid in their first matchup without Steel. Basically what I am saying is there are no teams I feel comfortable locking into every lineup, and no teams I want to exclude from my pool.
So the question becomes how do we get an edge on slates like this? Personally, I like to significantly shrink my player pool, only using the top 2-3 fraggers from each team, maybe the 4th fragger if the team is super balanced. My player pool for Tuesday will be:
Ence: Allu, Jamppi
Godsent: Maden, Zehn, Styko, Farlig
G2: Nexa, Hunter
Heroic: Teses, Niko, Stavn
Fnatic: Brollan, Krimz
FaZe: Broky, Niko
Gen.G: BnTet, Automatic, Koosta
Chaos: Xeppaa, Leaf
This just happened to work out to exactly 20 out of the 40 players on the slate. I do this because limiting my player pool allows me to swap as many different team combinations as possible. Instead of having the same 3 or 4 teams and swapping through 4 or even all 5 players on those teams like I would on a slate where I felt strongly about the outcomes of the games, I’ll have the same 2-3 players from every team and swap which other teams they are combined with.
The players listed above are what I would normally narrow down my captain pool to. I’m fine with using any of them at captain on this slate. Brollan, BnTet, Krimz, and Nexa are my favorite captains, but I plan to spread my ownership out fairly widely across all 8 teams.
I particularly like Broky and Xeppaa for low owned plays, as both should be in the low single digits of captain ownership, but possess the upside to put up the highest score on the slate.
That’s it for today, good luck Tuesday!