After a quick 1 day break, ESL Pro League is back on Tuesday. It’s the start of the playoffs, which unfortunately means we are down to 2 game slates. Lock is at 10:00 am EDT, and the games are:
Mousesports (52% implied win probability) vs NiP
Vitality (62%) vs Complexity
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
ChrisJ and K0nfig are in the player pool. ChrisJ is no longer active for Mouz and K0nfig is still recovering from breaking his wrist. Don’t play either of them.
Now that we’re back to Tier 1, I don’t expect underdogs to go under-owned quite as much as they did in T3 Monday, where we saw the Endpoint top players double the ownership of AGO despite it being a 56/44 game according to Vegas. I’d expect both sides of Mouz/NiP to have plenty of ownership, and I actually think that the Vitality side of the Vit/Col game to be under-owned. Zywoo will of course have a ton of ownership, but I think guys like Misutaaa and Shox will be too low owned. People don’t like playing the Vitality non-Zywoo guys and they love playing BlameF and Complexity in general. I think that combo actually weirdly makes a Vitality 3 stack the best play on the slate.
I also mentioned yesterday 3rd vs 4th fraggers and the ownership difference. On this slate JKS is .04 FP/r ahead of es3tag for 3rd on Col, make sure to mix in some Es3tag in Col stacks. Shox and Apex are also very close in FP/r. Shox is barely ahead over 3 months while Apex has a bit of a lead over 1 month (only 12 maps played). Since Apex is $800 cheaper I’d expect him to have higher ownership, make sure you play some Shox in Vitality stacks. Even Kyojin isn’t too far behind (.1 FP/r over 3 months) the two of them, and if you’re really MME’ing you should have some of him as well.
Mouz has a bit more of a gap between 3rd and 4th/5th, as Bymas is .1 FP/r ahead of acoR and .12 ahead of Dexter over the past 3 months. NiP actually has the biggest gap between 3rd and 4th, as Hampus is a solid .17 FP/r above Plopski in the 3 month data. Interestingly though, Rez is the 3rd fragger after the player break (aka 1 month) and is barely ahead of Plopski (.52 FP/r vs .50 FP/r). A Dev1ce, Hampus, Plopski stack isn’t a bad play for GPP’s.
Pricing is fairly tight so really I’m just trying to captain the best player I can fit in my lineup this slate. If you have room, Zywoo is of course the top captain play, but expect a ton of ownership. I also like the pivot to BlameF on the other side, as while he’s likely to have decent ownership, he shouldn’t have a ton of captain ownership.
Ropz and Dev1ce in the other game also have “top score on the slate” upside. Both of them are solid captains.
I’ll likely end up with a bunch of mid-range captains on the slate. I particularly like Frozen, Misutaaa, and Hampus from that group.
If I go super cheap, Dexter and acoR are my favorite plays, they both have solid upside, better than the other bottom fraggers on the slate.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!