With ESL off for a day before the start of the playoffs, we have a slate from Pinnacle Cup Monday morning. It’s a 2 gamer as DK likes to cut off the super early games. Lock is at 9:00 am EDT, and the games are:
Endpoint (56% implied win probability) vs AGO Rogue
Dignitas (62%) vs Galaxy Racer
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool looks correct. Twist was playing with a different team on Sunday but I’m pretty sure that was just some friends entering a minor tournament and he’ll be playing with Galaxy Racer again come Monday.
Even though this is a T3 slate, the teams should be fairly recognizable to anyone who has been playing CSGO DFS for a while. Dignitas, Endpoint, and AGO have been on tons of slates, and Galaxy Racer have been on a fair share. That said, on these lower tier slates, underdogs tend to go even more under-owned than they do on T1 slates. Even though Endpoint/AGO is basically a coinflip according to Vegas, Endpoint will most likely come in with much higher ownership than AGO. Dignitas are a bit more solid favorites, but Galaxy Racer still deserves more ownership than they’ll get given that they have a nearly 4/10 chance to win per the implied odds.
Within the teams pricing is actually pretty spot on. There’s no one who jumps out as a massive value or as massively overpriced relative to his teammates. In situations like this, I like to look at 4th and/or 5th fraggers who are really close to 3rd fraggers. What I mean by that, for example, is Leman is AGO’s 4th fragger in terms of FP/r. He averages .03 FP/r less than Fiku, AGO’s 3rd fragger. That equates to 2.7 fantasy points, aka less than 2 kills worth, if we assume the series goes a full 90 rounds. What I’m getting at is leman could easily outscore Fiku, and should be played in plenty of AGO stacks. However, because Fiku projects for ever so slightly higher, his ownership will likely dwarf that of Leman’s. The same is true for Thomas (3rd fragger) and Surreal (4th fragger) of Endpoint; Twist (3rd), dezon (4th) and even Disco Doplan (5th) of Galaxy Racer; and to a slightly lesser extent, Lekro (3rd) and Heap (4th) of Dignitas. The 4th/5th fraggers are all strong GPP plays.
Lastly in this section, last time we saw (or at least that I remember) Dignitas on a slate Hallzerk had been struggling and was just finding his form. Well it’s safe to say he’s found it now. He’s 4th on the slate in FP/r over the past 3 months and 2nd over the past month. Don’t let a perception of him struggling cloud your judgement if you hand build, Hallzerk is a top player on this slate.
Speaking of top players on the slate, pricing is loose enough that I’m looking for raw points in my captain slot. Those players are (in team alphabetical order)
That’s pretty much it for my captain pool on this slate.
Good luck on Monday!