Sunday we have yet another 4 game set from ESL Pro League, as the group stage rolls on. The games are:
Vitality (62% implied win probability) vs Spirit
Big (52%) vs Navi
OG (70%) vs AGO
Liquid (74%) vs 100T
Pricing has loosened up a bit for Sunday’s slate. It’s still not super loose, but there’s definitely more flexibility than there was on Saturday.
OG in particular are underpriced relative to their Vegas odds. They are the 2nd biggest favorite on the slate but the cheapest favorite on Draftkings. Issa in particular is again underpriced. I expect him and the rest of OG to be quite popular. I’m sure you can guess by now what I’m going to say next. That’s right, I love the pivot off OG and onto AGO. AGO has shown they can hang with teams in this tournament, taking BiG to 30 rounds on a map and actually beating Heroic in 3 maps (and it easily could have been a sweep). This may cause their ownership to rise a little bit, but I still expect it to be pretty low. They are a big underdog again, and also don’t offer that big of savings from OG. GruBy is $7.2k and Fiku is 7k, both higher than Issa and almost as high as Valde. For whatever reason, Draftkings has been super reactive to recent performance for the pricing of some teams. This has happened with AGO, as mhL is only $6.0. He was outscored by both GruBy and Fiku in their win against Heroic, and now is priced below them. Make no mistake about it, he is still far and away the best player on this team, and should be your top priority. Also, Furlan is all the way down at $5.0k, but is the teams 3rd leading scorer over the last 3 months and the past month, just edging out GruBy in both categories. mhL and Furlan make for a super cheap stack that can really free up salary elsewhere.
BiG’s prices have come down quite a bit on this slate. Instead of being grouped around $9.0k like they have been recently, they are now clustered in the ballpark of $8.0k. I expect this to make them much more popular than they’ve been recently, especially since Navi has looked so bad. Even though the game is almost a coinflip according to Vegas I expect way more lineups to be on BiG than Navi.
Part of that ownership is because of BiG’s pricing, but part of it is because both S1mple and Zywoo are on the slate. Pricing isn’t loose enough to easily fit them both, and Zywoo not only projects better, but is playing on a decently large favorite while S1mple is an underdog. I expect Zwyoo to come in at 50-60% owned and S1mple roughly half that. I’m definitely going to have a lot of Zywoo, but I’m also going to make sure I have a bunch of S1mple as well, maybe even in the same lineup (remember that stack I just mentioned that frees up a ton of salary, hint, hint). S1mple is the only player in the world who can match Zywoo’s upside, and just because BiG are a strong opponent doesn’t mean he won’t put up a huge score.
The team facing Zywoo is always underowned, and Spirit should be no different. If I make a lineup without Zywoo, I’m likely to put Mir and possibly a 2nd from Spirit in it. Spirit are a really solid team, and definitely a live dog against Vitality.
For Liquid, Grim is still overprojected. He has now played for Liquid for just about a month, and if you look at his one month stats he projects as a solid, but not spectacular player. He’s still worthy of playing, especially at only $7.4k, but Twistzz has actually outscored him since they’ve been teammates. Twistzz ownership should come in a good deal lower, so I much prefer him if choosing between the 2.
I’m not really planning on running much 100T, but if I do my focus will be on jks. He’s super cheap and if 100T pull of the upset, he’s likely to be instrumental in doing so.
I’m personally going to play a very small captain pool on Sunday. Zywoo and S1mple are the two highest upside players in the world, and the majority of my captain ownership will be on them. I am also going to run some mhL so I can really load up on the rest of my lineup. Those 3 players will make up the majority of my lineups.
If I do look elsewhere for my captains, players I like are (teams in order of my preference):
Liquid – Elige, Twistzz
BiG – Xantares, Tabsen, Syrson
Spirit – Mir
OG – Mantuu, Valde
100T – jks
Good luck on Sunday, at least Astralis isn’t playing so we shouldn’t see any after lock substitutions, not that I’m bitter about my 65% Bubz or anything.