ESL Pro League continues on Saturday, with 4 more matches. They are:
Fnatic (57% implied win probability) vs Mouz
Complexity (53%) vs NiP
Astralis (64%) vs Faze
EG (80%) vs Cloud9
Pricing is again tight on Saturday, maybe even more tight that Friday. There is finally not one team that is underpriced relative to their win odds, however there are individual players. I expect these players to become extremely chalky.
Poizon jumps off the screen as underpriced at $7.2k. He comes into this matchup 10th on the slate in fantasy points per round over the past 3 months and 2nd over the past month, trailing only Brehze. His price though, is only tied for 15th highest. Expect him to be super popular in both the flex and captain slots.
Bubzkji also sticks out at only $6k. He has been Astralis’ worst fantasy player since joining the team, but he hasn’t been that bad and everyone in the DFS community undoubtedly remembers his upside from his Mad Lions days. At that cheap of a price on the 2nd biggest favorite on the slate, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him have the highest flex ownership on the slate.
Tarik isn’t exactly underpriced per se at $6.8k, but he is a way to get cheap exposure to EG with a reasonable projection. He was 23% owned in the big GPP Friday and I expect that number to be even higher Saturday after he put up a really solid game.
All 3 of the guys I mentioned are good plays, and I’ll definitely be playing them, so let’s look at some ways we can differentiate the rest of our lineups.
Playing Magisk is one way to do that. At $10k I do not expect him to be very popular, hell he’s priced higher than Zywoo and S1mple have been lately. His 3 month stats are also nothing special. However, he has had to take on IGL duties those last few months, and his fragging fell off a cliff during that time. Now though, Glaive is back so Magisk can get back to focusing on what he does best, clicking on opponents heads. He put a huge score even in Glaive’s first game back, and Complexity is a much stronger opponent that Faze has been lately. I’ll have plenty of Magisk even at 10k as he has upside to put up the top score on the slate.
Fading Ethan is another way to be a bit different. He had a bad fantasy game Friday (for his standards) so that may keep his ownership down a little bit, but he’s still the 3rd leading fp/r scorer on the slate over the past 3 months, so I expect him to remain fairly popular Saturday, even priced all the way up. My logic for the fade is the same as it was Friday. Cerq and Brehze have been the better players of the trio that have been playing together for years, I don’t think that suddenly changed. I expect the stats to reflect that eventually, and I’ll keep prioritizing Cerq and Brehze in the meantime.
Lastly, I think playing underdogs is a good way to be different. NiP are almost the same price as Complexity, so I expect them to go lower owned than they should given that that game is nearly a coinflip. Faze will likely come in with low ownership too as everyone gravitates towards Bubz. Both Broky and Niko are fairly cheap, and Astralis did lose 2-0 to Complexity (both maps did go to OT) so they are not exactly an unbeatable juggernaut. I think Mouz (Ropz specifically) might actually be more popular the Fnc, so playing Fnc might actually be way to get contrarian. I imagine that most people with either play Ropz, Brollan, or no one from that game as both teams have really struggled of late. I think stacking either side of that game should actually come in with fairly low ownership outside of each team’s main guy. oSee is worth 1-offing as well in the NA game. I might have a couple stacks of him with Floppy, but mostly if I had to choose between him and Tarik for a 1-off I would lean oSee in GPPs. He’s put up huge numbers even in losses lately, and can do the same against EG.
I mentioned earlier that I think Poizon will be popular at captain, but he’s still my favorite captain play on the day. He has just as much upside as anyone on the slate, but comes at a steep discount from most of those options. I’ll also have a bit of BlameF as I expect his captain ownership to be low again because of pricing.
Everything I said about Magisk above applies to him as captain as well. His captain ownership should be virtually non-existent as he’s so expensive, but if you can make the salary work it should be a unique lineup. If he puts up the top score of the slate you’ll be in great shape.
Ropz will likely be decently popular, but I like him as a captain as well.
I’m going to fade Tarik and Bubz captain. Even though I like them in the flex I’m not sure they bring quite enough upside to put them in the captain slot.
Cerq and Brehze make good captains Saturday, as does Brollan from Fnatic. I don’t know that I’ll be brave enough to captain oSee, but if you think they can keep it close he’s a strong captain play as well.
NiP spread out their scoring so much that I’m unlikely to go there at captain, as Plopski, Rez, and Nawwk split their points fairly evenly, and none are all that high scoring.
Broky and Niko make for really good captain plays Saturday, as both should be low owned and both have big time upside if they can upset Astralis.
That’s it from me, good luck Saturday!