We have another 3 gamer from Group D of ESL Pro League on Saturday. Lock is still at 7:30 am EDT, and the games are:
Liquid (88% implied win probability) vs TeamOne
Gambit (80%) vs Entropiq
NiP (82%) vs Furia
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool is correct
Man these are some brutal game sets. 3 games with all of them featuring 80% implied win probability favorites is nuts. And the good players on the underdogs aren’t even that cheap, so running a one-off from a team you expect to get swept isn’t even that attractive of an option. Much like Friday, you could go for guys like Maluk3, Vini, or Lack1 and hope that they score 50 in a loss, which could be fine provided none of Stewie, interz, or LNZ go off.
Looking just within the favorites, I’d again expect the high priced players from NiP to have the lowest ownership of the 3 teams, as they have the worst stats. Gambit and Liquid could be close but I’d expect Gambit to garner a bit more ownership amongst the studs, partly because I think Stewie is a more attractive play than Interz so he’ll pull some of Liquid’s ownership his way.
I’ll be going right back to the mid to mid/high range captains on Saturday. Naf worked out great Friday but he’s unfortunately now priced way up. Now in the mid-range we have guys like Hobbit, Plopski, Fallen, and Hampus.
I do want to highlight Plopski specifically, because it appears that maybe something clicked over the player break? In NiP’s last 2 series he’s been a +15 and +12 respectively and has been averaging over 23 kills per map. There is of course a chance this was just variance and he’ll regress towards his longer term stats, but if it is real (and Plopski was at one point NiP’s best player in 2020, and was touted as the “star”) this is a great spot to get Plopski at low ownership given that anyone who is using projections is likely mostly getting numbers based on his long term stats.
If I were to go cheap I’d likely go Stewie2k. Interz just doesn’t have the upside and LNZ is super inconsistent. I do think Stewie will have decent ownership though, so I’m likely to try and stay in the mid-range or above.
When I play a 4k one-off, I may be able to squeeze a high-end captain into my lineup. I expect Sh1ro, Naf, and Dev1ce to get most of the high end captain ownership, so I like Elige and Ax1le in those lineups myself.
Good luck on Saturday!