IEM continues on Thursday. The games are still Bo1 and the slate locks at 1pm EST. The 4 games DK chose for the slate are:
Vitality (83% implied win probability) vs Sprout
OG (59%) vs Ence
NiP (52%) vs Faze
Fnatic (62%) vs DBL Poney
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool appears correct.
For anyone who missed yesterday’s article, I mentioned I like to run 2 man stacks as my biggest on Bo1 slates instead of 3 man slates. The results seem to support that idea (tiny sample size, I know), as only 1 of the top 10 lineups in the big $10 Wednesday featured a 3 stack. It seems prudent to run 2-2-2 or 2-2-1-1 lineups as long as these matches are Bo1.
As for the slate itself, as usual I’m first looking to see if there are any teams I can cross off my list. On this slate, that’s Sprout. Vitality are back in form, there’s plenty of value with realistic shots to win, and Sprout don’t have a singular star player who you’d expect to pop off even in a loss. If there was a tournament with 100k entrants then sure Sprout might make sense, but the “big” $10 only has 1764 entries, you don’t need to get overly cute.
In the other games, I like all the underdogs. Pricing isn’t moderately tight but not insane, so I don’t expect any of the other 3 underdogs to accumulate much rostership. Faze will likely have the most since they’re basically a coinflip and their best players are relatively cheap, but Ence and especially DBL Poney will likely have very few people playing them. I like DBL Poney a lot as we’ve already seen this new Fnatic roster lose matches to tier 2/3 teams, and anything can happen in a Bo1. Of course the problem is the kill share on DBL Poney is super flat, but all 5 of the guys are in play. I think Afro is a bit underpriced, and he’s also the safest one off since he is the AWPer.
For Ence, I really like Doto’s price, he’s 4th cheapest on the whole slate and 2 guys behind him are on Sprout. Doto is a solid player and can put up solid DK scores. He’s great for salary relief to fit guys like Zywoo.
Speaking of Zywoo, as always (when S1mple isn’t on the slate) he’s the top choice at captain. If you ran the slate 100 times he’s going to score the most points more often than any other player. However, “more often than any other player” could be 15/100 times, so there are definitely other options to be looked at. I know I mentioned liking all the underdogs, but that doesn’t mean I’m not going to play the other favorites, maybe 1 or 2 of the “2’s” in my 2-2-2 lineup will be an underdog. Mantuu, Flamez, Device, Rez, Mezii, and Brollan can all challenge Zywoo for most points on the slate.
There are also several midrange captains I like. Of course, there are the underdogs: Broky, Twistzz, Spinx, dycha, Hades, bodyy, Djoko, and afro can all go off in a win. I’d definitely get some exposure to at least a few of them at captain. However, there are a couple more mid-priced favorites that I like at captain too. Jackinho, Valde, and Rez (who I know I also mentioned above, but he’s cheap) are all priced moderately and can put up big numbers when they are on. Each of them is a solid captain choice, particularly if you don’t want to play any cheap underdogs in a particular lineup. In the same vein, Plopski and Krimz are also worth a look for “punt” captains, as both guys are definitely a bit too cheap.
Good luck on Thursday!