Welcome back! After a couple of days off while I was moving, I’m back for Day 3 of Group D. We have a 3 game slate with lock at 7:30 am EST. The games are:

NiP (89% implied win probability) vs T1

Liquid (65%) vs Entropiq

Gambit (87%) vs Furia

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Player pool is correct

Slate Analysis

This is quite the slate to come back to, with 2 absolutely massive favorites. I think both those lines are justified though, as T1 are not a tier 1 team and Furia are essentially playing 4v5 since their coach was forced to step in after Honda (who was being benched after this event anyways) chose to stay home after his mom was diagnosed with Covid-19. Guerra has been coaching for a long time so he is a complete liability in the server, as evidenced by his 20-44 stat line in a 2-0 sweep against T1.

Gambit and NiP are at least both priced way up. The Gambit guys have better overall stats which tends to lead to increased ownership on them. Rez and to a lesser extent Device could see decently low (given their win probability) ownership, making them interesting for GPP’s. Hampus could also have a big series as aggressive players tend to do well against lesser teams.

Liquid have been the surprise of the group so far, 2-0’ing NiP and almost 2-0’ing Gambit before eventually losing 2-1. This has earned them the right to be pretty big favorites vs Entropiq. I would argue too big of favorites as I don’t think 2 days of Liquid overperforming should have swayed the line as much as I believe it has. I’d think that before the tournament this line would’ve been close to even. At the same time, Entropiq are cheap. And with two massive favorites who are priced way up that’s going to attract ownership. They’re fine plays, but ownership will likely keep me from going too overboard in GPP’s.

I actually like the Liquid side, particularly Elige since he’s so expensive, in GPP’s. His ownership should be fairly depressed by people playing the “safe” plays from Gambit and/or NiP. While Elige is more likely to crash and burn, he has just as high of upside as anyone on the slate. Naf also has that upside and is pretty cheap, I like him a lot as an Elige stacking partner or on his own.

Given that I don’t love Entropiq, I’m going to need to save money somewhere. I may completely punt with Maluk3 and hope he scores 50+ in a loss. Vini is in that same punt boat. Playing either of them allows for added lineup flexibility and hopefully will help you differentiate your lineup from the field.

Top Captains

I think mid-range/mid-to-high priced captains are the name of the game on Friday. Naf, Hobbit, Hampus, and nafany are all strong options. Sh1ro is only $9k which will probably lead to him having a lot of ownership.

I already touched on both these guys, but Rez and Elige should have low captain ownership with their high price points. Both guys are high upside and I like them a lot in GPP’s.

LNZ has occasionally flashed upside since getting the promotion up to the main NiP squad, I suppose he’s a fine captain if you want to go cheap. I do think interz is something of a trap though, as he’s been super low upside. He hasn’t been +10 K-D or better in a series since June, and that was a 3-0 sweep in a Bo5 against Nemiga.

That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!

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