IEM Fall 2021 starts on Wednesday. There’s about 100 games going on throughout the day, but for whatever reason DK has narrowed it down to only a 4 game slate. These are also Bo1 series. The games included on the slate are:
Mouz (55% implied win probability) vs Big
Astralis (84%) vs Endpoint
Heroic (82%) vs Movistar Riders
Complexity (65%) vs Sinners
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Boros was unfortunately unable to get a Visa in time for this event, and because of the event rules on subs, Endpoint are stuck with their coach, Allan. Allan was a caster and analyst before recently becoming Endpoint’s coach. This will be his first ever pro match on HLTV. I know I’ve often said that team’s playing with their coach are like they’re playing 4v5, but those coaches are usually at least former pros. This time it’s really like Endpoint are playing 4v5 as I’d be surprised if Allan crosses 5 kills. Anyways, both Allan and Boros are in the player pool, don’t play Boros.
Otherwise, the player pool appears to be correct.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Bo1 slates, so I’ll take a minute to talk strategy. Typically, I move from 3/2/1 lineups to 2/2/2 or even 2/2/1/1 on Bo1 slates. The reasoning is that you don’t have the chance for the 20 point sweep bonus, and that it’s harder for 3 players to have a really good map on the same map, whereas when there are 2 maps players A and B can do really well on map 1 and A and C can do really well on map 2 leaving all 3 with solid scores. Also, it makes it easier for a player on a losing team to have a good score. It’s harder to do well while your team loses twice than it is once, pretty simple.
Lastly, there’s even more randomness, both on who wins and within a team. A timely 4k can make a HUGE difference in overall score in a Bo1, particularly on value guys/bottom fraggers. If you use a lineup generator I’d recommend cranking your randomness setting up quite a bit (and using a minimum salary spent rules to make sure you don’t get terrible lineups).
As for the actual slate, as usual on >2 game slates I like to start by checking if there are any teams I can cross off entirely. On this slate it’s Endpoint for me. Their coach is not and never was a pro caliber player, and while I do feel for them playing 4v5 against Astralis isn’t something I want to target in DFS.
I am not crossing off Movistar Riders though because Sunpayus is worth a look as a one-off. I probably won’t stack them at all, but I’m leaving him in my player pool.
I’ll be using the other 6 teams as both stacks and one offs.
I’d expect Refrezh to be chalk after how well he played last tournament, I’m going to try to be heavier on his Heroic teammates than him. Lucky may also pick up quite a bit of rostership, again I’ll try to be heavier on the other Astralis members, although I’ll probably have more Lucky relative to his teammates than Refrezh.
Both sides of Mouz/Big could end up somewhat overlooked as people flock to play the heavy favorites. Col could be in the same boat as they’re almost as pricey as the 2 heavy favorites. I expect most people who play Col will use BlameF, and while he’s still their best (fantasy) player, I don’t think it’s as clear as it was before. Poizon, es3tag, and even jks and coldzera are all solid plays, and I like stacking Col without BlameF a lot on this slate.
Sinners should see very little ownership even though they have a decent shot to win according to Vegas. They’re probably the best GPP play on the slate. Oskar is the guy you’ll definitely want, and then Neofrag, Shock, and Zedko all score similarly enough to make them each playable.
In Bo1’s captain is also much more unpredictable. I think just focus on your stacks and then play the “best” player you can afford to fit in your captain from those stacks. It’s especially murky since Heroic and Astralis are the big favorites but don’t really have a “superstar” player in terms of FP/r. I do think that will cause the guys near $10k (Dupreeh, Stavn, Teses) on those teams to go underowned at the captain slot, I’m going to make it a point to make sure I have some exposure to Dupreeh and Teses in particular.
Paying down at captain is also perfectly fine, I like it better on a Bo1 slate than Bo3’s. Guys like Lucky and Refrezh in the mid-range will be somewhat popular but not overwhelmingly so since it’s a 4 game slate. I also like Coldzera at captain. He’s too cheap and really let’s you jam in some studs.
Lastly, don’t forget to play some underdogs at captain. Oskar and Sunpayus can both put up huge numbers, and while Big doesn’t have a “star” Syrson and Tabsen are solid captain choices.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!