We have more playoffs of the ESL Pro League in NA and SA on Saturday. It’s the lower bracket finals for both regions, winner goes to the grand finals while the loser is eliminated. The games are:
EG (69% implied win probability) vs 100 Thieves
Boom (90%) vs Havan Liberty
Pricing is loose enough on this slate that it’s easy to fit Boom + EG. That’s what I expect most people to do here. Boom were a big disappointment on Friday, but they just easily dispatched Havan Liberty earlier in the week, and I expect them to again by mega chalk on Saturday (Felps was 85+ percent owned on Friday). Havan should have almost 0 ownership Saturday, but even then I’m still unlikely to go to them. They are simply outmatched by this Boom team. After a terrible day Friday, my hope is that Boltz ownership will come down a bit. He and Felps are near locks in Boom stacks, but the 3rd player could be rotated.
The EG vs 100T matchup is far more interesting. 100T have come to life recently. Gratisfaction in particular has looked stellar on his AWP, and AZR and Liazz have really stepped up lately. Ironically it’s actually been jks and jkaem bottom fragging and struggling a bit the past couple matches. 100T will need all 5 players to step up to beat EG, but if Grat can keep up his recent form, they’ve got a real shot.
However, 100T is the pivot that everyone is going to make Saturday, and I think they actually could end up a bit over owned. While Furia may have established themselves as EG’s kryptonite, 100T are no Furia, and it’s not exactly easy to copy their super aggressive style and actually be good at it. Brehze, Cerq, and Ethan are the obvious plays here, but I like mixing in Tarik and/or Stanislaw to differentiate.
Felpz and Boltz are the obvious plays here, and I again expect them to be super popular. Yel is a nice pivot here, as if he gets hot with his AWP he can put up a top score.
Going captain from the NA game is a nice pivot Saturday, as with how popular Boom should be everyone from NA should come in fairly low at captain. From EG I’ll have a bit of Brehze, Cerq, and Ethan, and from 100T I’ll be on jks and Gratisfaction. Grat is likely to be a bit overowned after his last 2 performances, but he does possess massive upside.
Good luck on Saturday!