The playoffs continue Friday for the ESL Pro League. We have the first round of the lower bracket in NA and the upper bracket final in SA. Loser is out in NA and winner moves on to face EG. Winner is into the finals in SA and loser plays Havan Liberty. The games are:
Liquid (61% implied win probability) vs 100 Thieves
BOOM (65%) vs Sharks
Pricing is incredibly loose on Friday. You can play basically whoever you want from any team. This means that BOOM and Liquid are going to be super chalky, as both are moderately large favorites. Ownership on the slate should go BOOM > Liquid >> 100T > Sharks.
If you go by the lines, Sharks are only slightly less likely to win than 100T, and therefore make for the best leverage play on the slate. However, from what I’ve seen from SA CS:GO, I think BOOM are far and away the better team here. My leverage play of choice will be 100T. All 5 players have been contributing for 100T of late, and if they can get anything remotely close to what Gratisfaction did last time out on his AWP I think they can take down Liquid here. Liquid have been struggling a bit of late as it is, only beating Gen.G 2-0 this entire tournament.
If you do want to play BOOM + Liquid, there are a couple of ways to differentiate a bit. The first is Grim. His 3 month stats are still carried by his time with Triumph, and while they are starting to come down, they still cause him to be overprojected. Fading Grim is one way to differentiate even when playing a favorite-favorite lineup here. The other way is to play multiple 4th/5th fraggers in the same lineup. Don’t be afraid to mix in Stewie and Chelo in the same lineup, even if you have the salary to upgrade. This will make your lineup much less likely to be part of a train of duplicates and give you a shot at a solo (or double/triple) takedown.
I tend to do most of my getting creative in the flex, and keep it straightforward at captain. At my captain slot today in particular I’m looking for the most raw points on the slate. That leads me to 2 plays in particular, Felps and Boltz. They have by far the highest fantasy points per round over the past 3 months on the slate, both coming in over 1.00. For reference, the S1mple’s and Zywoo’s over the world typically sit around .85. Yel and shz have the 4th and 5th highest 3 month fp/r on the slate, and are also fine captains.
If you play the Sharks side of the matchup, exit is the player that breaks up the top 4 from BOOM, averaging an elite .84 fp/r (3rd on the slate) over the past 3 months himself. He makes for a great captain in Sharks lineups.
I generally prefer my captain to be from the SA game today, as they tend to do less saving, leading to higher scores overall, but there are still some solid captain plays from NA. For Liquid, Elige, Twistzz, and NAF are all in play for me. While I may run Grim in the flex, I will be full fading him at the captain spot. His ownership always outweighs his likelihood to hit his ceiling now that he plays for Liquid, so I’ll be looking elsewhere.
For 100T, I expect Grat’s insane performance last time out to bring him some captain ownership, but he’s my 3rd favorite captain from 100T. I prefer both jks and jkaem as my captain plays from 100T. There is a chance I go only BOOM + 100T today in which case I’d leave all 5 players in my pool, but if mixing in Liquid lineups or doing less than max entries I’d focus on the 3 players I highlighted (same for Chelo on BOOM).
Good luck on Friday!