Group C continues on Saturday, with another 2 game slate locking at 10:30 am EDT. The games for Saturday are:
Navi (71% implied win probability) vs Complexity
OG (59%) vs Faze
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool appears correct.
There’s only a couple ways to get unique on this slate. The obvious one is not playing S1mple. He’ll likely be 90% owned again, and for good reason. Still, in GPP’s it makes sense to move off him in a portion of your lineups. The obvious way to move off him is to play Col, which is fine. The path to that working is obvious, Col 2-0’s Navi in convincing fashion and 3 players outscore S1mple. The less obvious way is to play 3 non-S1mple Navi players. The path to the working is a little trickier, basically Navi needs to win so hard that 3 other players outscore S1mple. Every now and this this happens, and when it does a team with a B1t/Electronic/Perfecto stack has a huge edge on the 90% of the field with S1mple.
In the other game, I do think OG should be more like 65-67% favorites against Faze. OG are playing really good CS, taking a map off Navi in their current form is no small feat, and Faze’s roster currently leaves a lot to be desired. They just got swept by a Col roster that was playing it’s first official match together. Unfortunately, this isn’t super actionable for DFS as OG’s ownership will already be what it should be if they were a 65-67% favorite. Basically, I’ll be closer to the field on Faze in a spot where I’d normally be well over the field.
If you run multiple lineups, make sure you’re mixing in some 4th fraggers (Perfecto, Olof/Rain) and all 5 players from OG and Complexity. Aleksib in particular should have low ownership as niko is cheaper and has been playing better lately.
Just like Friday, it’s S1mple vs the field at captain. He’ll probably be 50% owned (higher in high stakes) at captain. Again, there aren’t many people who can reach a ceiling that will beat him if he has a good day on a regular basis. Player who can include:
Of course, if Col wins, BlameF and Poizon are strong captain choices.
Pricing is loose enough that I don’t really think you need to go for value at captain unless you legitimately think the value player can put up the most points on the slate. I don’t see anyone who fits that criteria though.
That’s all for me, good luck on Saturday!