We’re into the playoffs of ESL Pro League. We have a small 2 game slate on Thursday. In NA, it’s the upper bracket final, the winner goes straight to the grand finals, while the loser has to play the winner of Liquid/100T. In SA, it’s a lower bracket game, with the winner moving on and the loser eliminated. The games are:
EG (61% implied win probability) vs Furia
Isurus (55%) vs Havan Liberty
Pricing isn’t too tight on this slate, as it’s really only EG who are priced up as a team (and for some reason Jony Boy). You can basically get whatever combination of teams you want in a 3-3 lineup. Most people, myself included, will be running 3-3’s here. I think all 4 teams will have some level of ownership, but with Furia having just beat EG last week I think they are the pivot people are most like to make off of a favorite. Havan Liberty could end up a little underowned here as If you pivot to Furia you can easily afford to play the “favorite” in the SA game. I admittedly don’t watch a ton of SA, but from the research I’ve done this game seems like a coinflip to me. I’ll be heavily on the Havan Liberty side as I think their ownership should be lower.
I hope that since Furia beat them last time out, EG’s ownership will come in lower than it should. They will definitely still be high owned (everyone will on this slate) but I think they bounce back in this spot and show they are the best team in the Americas. I’m hopeful that the EG + Havan Liberty combo will come in lower owned than Furia + Isurus and am looking to take advantage of that. I’ll also have a bit of Furia + Havan as the double dog lineup should definitely come in low owned.
Sometimes on these 2 game slates people try to get cute at captain, using 4th or 5th fraggers to try to differentiate. Most of the time I don’t think this is necessary, as you can play one or two of those guys in the flex and get plenty of differentiation. Today is no different, so my captain pool will be the top 2 or 3 from each team. My pool will be:
I particularly like remix as he has a clear path to the top score on the slate if they win but should have pretty low captain ownership.
Good luck Thursday!