Group C starts on Friday, with 4 new teams. That of course means it’s a 2 game slate, with lock at 10:30 am EDT. The games are:
Navi (69% implied win probability) vs OG
Faze (52%) vs Complexity
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Once again the NA (or formerly NA, Faze is ironically the only team with an NA player on it in this series) orgs are making roster changes all over the place. K0nfig is still out for Col, and with his rumored move to Astralis may be out permanently. Coldzera is making his debut for Complexity though, and immediately is in action against his former team. With how intricate Karrigan’s playbook is, immediately facing his old teammates may actually give Col more of an advantage than it would for a lot of more pug-style teams.
That’s the only recent roster change, as Coldzera had of course been on Faze’s bench for a while. The player pool is correct.
Pricing on this slate is overall loose, outside of S1mple of course. Typically that means that ownership concentrates in the favorites more heavily than normal. This slate is a little odd on that front, though. People really like to play BlameF, and don’t get me wrong he’s definitely a top fantasy performer. This will likely tilt ownership to Complexity. Mantuu and Valde will also likely have a bit of ownership since they’re pretty cheap and generally popular, although the Navi stacking options behind S1mple are much stronger than they used to be. What I’m getting at is I think a lot of people are going to run either 3/2/1 or some other combination of opponents on this slate, meaning I think the edge is actually going to be running 3/3. Almost no one will be running an OG 3 stack, and even the Faze 3 stack should be underowned with a lot of people playing BlameF.
Flamez in particular should have low ownership, as he’s overpriced relative to his teammates. And I also want to highlight Coldzera. If he’s in K0nfig’s old role he could be a much better fantasy performer than he was with Faze, and is definitely worth mixing into Col stacks (which you may have to force as his stacks were lacking previously). I’ll have him in roughly half my Col stacks as I’d expect that he won’t get much ownership in this spot and people looking at his old stats.
S1mple is head and shoulders above everyone else in the world right now. Expect him to also be head and shoulders above the field at captain. This list of players who even have the (somewhat reliable) upside to outscore him if he plays well is short. It’s basically:
Of course, if he doesn’t play well, OG are likely to win. In that case Mantuu and Valde are definitely interesting captain options, and the non-Navi players I listed above remain strong options. I’d even throw Poizon into that mix as a captain to use in Col/OG lineups, although those should be few and far between so no need to get overly cute.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!