After Monday off, ESL Pro League NA is back. For whatever reason, DK also decided to put the SA game on the slate, making it a 5 gamer. The games are:
100 Thieves (80% implied win probability) vs Triumph
EG (60%) vs Liquid
Furia (73%) vs Chaos
Gen.G (57%) vs Cloud 9
Boom (91%) vs Havan Liberty
The inclusion of the SA game really throws a wrench in this slate. BOOM has absolutely insane stats. They have the top 4 fantasy points per round (past 3 months) on the slate, and their 5th, Chelo, is still a .65 fp/r, a very solid number. They are also massive favorites against Havan Liberty. They are priced way up, but this team should absolutely smash as a whole. I am going to try to have as much exposure as I possibly can here, with the hopes that the lesser known names keep ownership down.
The other big favorites competing with Boom for ownership will be 100T and Furia. 100T is fresh off of an upset win over Furia, and now faces off against Triumph. Triumph have actually been playing better recently, taking a map off of Chaos, Liquid, and even EG in their last 3 matches (and their map losses against both Liquid and EG were fairly competitive). I don’t think this is quite as much of a cakewalk as the odds imply, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Triumph at the very least keep both maps close. Because of this, I’ll be fairly low on 100T. I do like AZR as a value play at only $5.8k, he’s actually outperformed Liazz and Gratisfaction in 1 month fp/r. I may even have a bit of exposure to one-offs of Junior and Penny here, Junior in particular has played really well of late.
On the Furia side, I expect them to come out focused. They are coming off of a loss to 100T and lost to this Chaos squad the last time they met. Kscerato is still too cheap at only $7.6k, and arT ($7.0k) and Vini ($5.6k) also make for good value plays. I’ll have a small amount of Chaos here, as I do think they are a solid team and a slightly more live underdog than the odds imply. Vanity and Jonji are both basically free, and really help fit the top end BOOM players.
EG has looked mortal recently, losing to Furia and dropping their own map choice to Triumph. That said so have Liquid, as their 2-0 over Gen.G last time out is their 1st 2-0 of the tournament (and map 2 took OT). Pricing on these teams is very similar, so I’ll be mostly on the EG side. Ethan’s price has really come down, now only $7.2k, as his fp/r have normalized back to being below Brehze and Cerq. Tarik is also a nice salary saver at $6.2k, he’s actually outscored Ethan over the past month. From the Liquid side, Twistzz and NAF are underpriced while Grim is again overpriced. I’ll be full fading Grim while Twistzz/NAF will be my preferred combo should I make Liquid lineups.
The Gen.G vs Cloud 9 matchup is an interesting one. It basically depends entirely on which C9 team shows up. Will it be the C9 team that pushed Liquid to OT on the 3rd map, or will it be the C9 team that won 8 rounds across both maps against Chaos? If it’s the latter, Gen.G should absolutely smash. If it’s the former, we should see a close matchup but even then Gen.G could pay off their salaries that are low relative to the rest of the favorites. No what the outcome of the series is, the pricing on Koosta is egregious. At only $5.4k he should smash value as long as Gen.G is competitive in this series, which they should be. s0m is also too cheap at $4.8k. The only player I would caution against playing on Gen.G is cxzi. His stats are boosted by his time in the T2 (maybe even T3) scene within NA, meaning his projections, and thus ownership, will likely come in a bit higher than they should. He’s still an ok play, but I prefer the rest of Gen.G to him.
I’ll likely have a bit of Cloud 9, as they just massively let everyone down, particularly oSee on a day that he was chalk. He has been playing at a high level lately, and his $8.6k price should keep him very low owned on Tuesday. I’ll have some one-offs of him at the very least.
Just like I am going to jam as many BOOM stacks into my lineups as possible, I’m also going to try to jam as many BOOM captains. All 5 players are in play for me, the top 4 for their raw points, and Chelo for his cost savings while still projecting well.
Outside of BOOM, Kscerato is my favorite captain on the slate. He has the upside to put up the highest score on the slate, and is in my opinion the most mispriced player on a big favorite today.
I’ll also have some Koosta at captain. His salary savings really help fit BOOM stacks, which again, stacking BOOM is my top priority on the slate. For similar reasons, I’ll have a bit of NAF at captain. Should Liquid upset EG, he should score well but is priced at only $6.6k (flex). Again, he allows me to fit plenty of BOOM players.
Again, for the exact same reasons, I’ll have a bit of AZR captain as well.
Those are my main captains, but if the salary works with a BOOM stack I’d of course be happy to end up with captains of any of the top guns from the favorites, I just doubt the salary will work well.
That’s it for me, good luck Tuesday!