Sunday we’ve got a 4 game, NA only ESL Pro League slate that kicks off a 1 pm EST. A nice compliment to some NFL action. The games are:
Furia (74% implied win probability) vs 100 Thieves
Liquid (76%) vs Gen.G
Chaos (55%) vs Cloud 9
EG (91%) vs Triumph
Pricing on Sunday is tiiight, with a few key exceptions. As always, this is a recipe for chalk. A few of the chalky spots will be:
Furia – specifically Kscerato, arT, and Vini are all underpriced. Hen1 and Yuurih got priced up, but these 3 are all down at $7.4k or lower. A matchup with 100 Thieves isn’t exactly easy, but Furia are big favorites still so except the bottom (priced) guys of their roster to be popular. All 5 players are still group pretty closely in fantasy points per round over the past 3 months, but Hen1, Kscerato, and to a lesser extent Yuurih, have really started to separate themselves over the 1 month data. I love paying up for Hen1 or Yuurih if you can get there on this slate.
Liquid – Really just NAF, is super underpriced at $7.0k. DK have finally caught on about Twistzz and he’s priced all the way up at $8.4k, but evidently that means someone had to be lowered, and that happened to be NAF today. Grim’s 3 month stats are slowly coming down to earth, that plus his $10.0k salary might keep his ownership a little lower than it has been recently. However, fading him is still one of the biggest edges on the slate. I won’t begrudge you playing him in the flex spot, but I’ll be full fading him from both flex and cpt.
Liquid as a whole have been struggling a bit lately, they’ve dropped a map in every single series of ESL Pro League so far (and also got 2-0’d by Furia). Gen.G are my favorite underdog to play today. Be a little bit careful playing cxzi, his stats are buoyed by some low tier competition games, but BnTet and Koosta are definitely solid plays. Automatic has been struggling lately, but I don’t hate throwing him in as the 3rd in a stack.
EG are massive favorites over Triumph, as they should be. Their top guys are all priced super high, but Tarik sits down at $7.6k. While I expect the $7.4k Kscerato to take some of his ownership, Tarik could be the most popular player on EG. Even Stanislaw will likely be popular given that he’s only $6.6k. They are both fine plays, but the EG top 3 are much more likely to hit their ceiling scores. They could come in underowned here (relative to the win odds), I’ll be prioritizing them over Team Liquid studs.
Cloud 9 are technically the underdogs against Chaos, but I expect them to see way more ownership. oSee is only $7.8k, and I expect him to be mega-chalk as he has been playing out of his mind lately. Floppy comes in at only $6.8k, I expect him to be a popular partner to pair with oSee. This will leave Chaos underowned. I love the Chaos play, all 5 guys are in play for me, as a leverage play off of C9 chalk.
Kscerato is my favorite captain of the day, although I do expect him to carry some ownership. He’s mid-priced with as high of upside as anyone on the slate, and a reasonable shot at hitting that upside.
I also like Brehze at captain quite a bit. Priced all the way up at $10.2k (flex price) I imagine he’ll go almost unowned at captain. He has a good shot at putting up the top score of the slate, and I’m confident we can find value to make his salary fit.
Xeppaa should also go super underowned here. It’s been a while since he’s had a huge game, but one of these day’s he’s going to pop off. Today is as likely as any day for that to happen, so I’ll have a couple of shares here.
NAF also stands out for the same reasons as Kscerato, but I doubt I’ll have much of him as I’m down on Liquid as a whole.
oSee will likely be super popular, and while he’s a fine play I prefer fading him here given his likely ownership.
In my Gen.G lineups, I’ll have a couple of shares of BnTeT, as if they can pull of the upset he has slate breaking upside.
That will be my core (and with the big GPP only being 28 entry max I expect it to be almost everyone that I play), but other players I’ll consider at captain are:
Good luck on Sunday!