Welcome back. Group B of Blast Premier kicks off Monday, with another 2 game slate. Lock is at 10:30 am EDT and the games are:
G2 (90% implied win probability) vs MiBR
NiP (53%) vs Big
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Unfortunately, this is going to be another group marred by standins. MiBR, who would’ve been the underdogs of the group anyways, are having to play with not one but two standins. Boltz unfortunately tested positive for Covid so he obviously didn’t travel, and Chelo was in a car accident and wasn’t able to get cleared to travel. Obviously don’t play either of them.
The good news in their substitutes are in the player pool. Nak is part of the coaching staff, and played professionally in Brazil until the end of 2020, and brnz4n is on their academy squad.
It’s really unfortunate that Boltz and Chelo aren’t playing, as it makes MiBR totally unplayable. Not only would 2 standins always hurt, but Boltz and Chelo are MiBR’s best players. I have absolutely 0 interest in stacking MiBR, and I’d only use a few one offs in MME. Yel would be my one off of choice as since he AWPs he might be able to salvage a decent scoreline in a slaughter.
On the G2 side, I have a hard time seeing a world where Niko and Hunter aren’t the top fraggers. Both are aggressive riflers, and they should steamroll MiBR. If you’re MME’ing you almost have to run some lineups without one or the other. In those lineups, or even in lineups with both Kovac’s (Niko and Hunter’s last name) if you can make it fit, I expect AmaNek to go somewhat overlooked. Amanek is definitely overpriced, which is why his rostership should be fairly low. I imagine people will want to play Nexa over Jackz, but Jackz is so cheap I think he’s going to have a lot of rostership. Other than making sure to have Amanek exposure, my best advice would be to leave money on the table to differentiate. Everyone is going to be running similar lineups on this slate, so it’s going to take creativity to get different.
On way you could go to get different is running a 4-2 game stack. I don’t think it’s an unreasonable scenario that Hunter and Niko are the only people in the G2/MiBR match to have tournament winning stores. If they both score 80 and everyone else scores in the 50’s, 4 people from NiP/Big could definitely beat that.
Now, in the actual NiP/Big match, I have no lean one way or the other. I think it’s a coinflip just like Vegas does. Big will probably have nominally lower rostership, but both sides are going to have plenty since it’s only a 2 game slate. I wish I could be more helpful but outside of running 4 from this game (I prefer a 3-1 setup but 2-2 could also work) I don’t think there’s really and angle to get an edge here. Either team could win and there’s not really any sneaky play based on price or anything. I guess K1to has been playing decently well of late but people are going to need his savings so he’ll have rostership. Lnz and Tizian are likely the only people from the game who won’t have much rostership, but they’re also really thin plays. Rez might also come in a bit under-rostered because he’s expensive, but again it’s a 2 game slate he’s not “sneaky”.
In terms of raw points on this slate I’d go: Niko > Hunter > Device > Tabsen > Syrson > Rez
I expect a lot of people will play device or syrson to save money, as they cost quite a bit less than the rest. I do like both of them, but I’ll try to stay away in GPPs. I do think Rez at captain is fairly sneaky, as he should only be rostered at captain in a small percentage of lineups. Tabsen should be in basically the same boat.
I do like Hampus and gade in the mid-range as well. Both guys have upside, even if they only hit it once in a blue moon.
I’m going to stay away from Jackz captain but I actually do like K1to at captain if you want to go super cheap. That will free you up to jam as many other studs in as you can.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!