This slate is quite the doozy. We have an 8 game, EU only slate Saturday morning as the group stage wraps up for them. DK didn’t even include NA, which has 4 games of it’s own in the afternoon (there is a slate for that, but the contests are so small I’m unlikely to write a post for them). The games are:
BiG (63% implied win probability) vs Ence
Navi (61%) vs G2
Godsent (64%) vs AGO
Heroic (61%) vs OG
Astralis (74%) vs Spirit
Complexity (79%) vs Faze
Fnatic (78%) vs NiP (Threat, their coach, is still playing)
Vitality (63%) vs Mouz
Draftkings honestly did an impressive job with their pricing for this slate. There’s really no one that I look at and think “that guy is super mispriced”. They almost forgot es3tag again but added him after the fact once we *very politely* harassed them on twitter. However, as I write this (8:24 pm EST Friday), he’s not in the player pool on one of the big optimizer sites. This could cause him to go severely underowned, something to keep in mind.
I think the best place to start on a slate this big is who I’m not interested in. If we can X out a big portion of the playerpool right away, that makes building lineups that much easier. Teams I’m not interested in are:
FaZe – This team barely squeaked out 2 wins against a team playing with their coach who hadn’t played an official match in 4 years. Now they up against Complexity. Did I mention they are also embroiled in rumors that NiKo is leaving to join G2? I’ll pass here.
NiP- Remember 1 line above this where I mentioned FaZe barely beat a team playing with their coach? Well NiP are that team, and their coach is playing again Saturday. I liked them as a leverage play on the 4 game slate against a FaZe team that is also reeling, but I don’t think you need to reach that deep on an 8 game slate. For as much as Fnatic has gotten a bad wrap of late, they are a still a solid team. They just took Astralis to 3 maps on Friday, and took a map against Col recently as well.
And that’s it, a whole 2 out of 16 teams that I feel we can fully eliminate.
Out of those remaining teams, a few of my favorites are:
Godsent – The other day Godsent was 2 rounds away from closing out a 2-0 against BiG, having taken a 14-4 lead on Mirage (this also would have all but guaranteed that I win the $10 that day, but I digress). In true Godsent fashion, they blew that lead and lost the map in double OT. They proceeded to get crushed on Nuke, as I’m sure they were all tilted and demoralized after the tough loss the previous map. That said, I’m coming right back to the well here. They’re priced as cheap as any favorite on the slate tomorrow and are playing one of the bottom teams in the tournament in AGO. AGO have been playing pretty well, but should Godsent get the win here they should put up some very good price considered scores.
AGO – I also like AGO on the other side of this game. mhL is still too cheap at $6.2k, and this team has proved throughout this tournament that they can compete with the tops teams in the world. I’ll be heavy on this game overall, as both teams are in good price considered spots.
Complexity – I’m going to jam as much Col as I can into my lineups on Saturday. I’m even okay with running 3 stacks of them as they’ve shown they can have 3 players get to that 70+ plus level. Poizon, Konfig, and oBo are all relatively cheap for their upside, and BlameF has elite numbers.
Astralis – With es3tag added to the slate late and being added late or not at all to some of the big optimizer sites, he end up lower owned than he should. If he does, I love him as a play tomorrow and I don’t mind the rest of Astralis either. Their prices aren’t outlandish and they should take down Spirit with relative ease. Again, I also don’t mind a 3 stack here (although I do like Col better).
I’ll mix and match the other 10 remaining teams with the ones I already mentioned, but those are by far my favorite plays, I’ll likely have a stack from at least one of those teams in every single lineup I make.
Even though there are a ton of teams on the slate, I’m planning on running a tight captain pool. I’m only going to captain players I feel have a legit shot at the top score on the slate. My captain pool will be (no particular order):
Everyone on Godsent except Krystal
I may end up using everyone on that list, but that will be my player pool at the captain spot. It works out to be 16/80, or what I view as the top 20% of players on the slate (I did not make it work out perfectly like that on purpose).
I’ll leave you all with one last piece of advice. On a slate of this size, don’t get too cute. You don’t need every player to come in under 10% to differentiate your lineup, you only need 1 or 2. Play the players you think are in the best spots, and don’t be afraid to take stands on guys you like.
Good luck Saturday!