It’s Day 2 of Blast Premier on Friday, and Thursday’s winners face off as do Thursday’s losers. Lock is at 10:30 am EDT again, and the games are:
Vitality (75% implied win probability) vs Astralis
Liquid (88%) vs EG
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Glaive is in the player pool, don’t play him, he’s on paternity leave. Otherwise everything looks good.
While I think both of these lines are a bit too steep, I still don’t have a ton of interest in stacking either underdog. What I am interested in are one-offs. My expectation is that most people go the one-off Astralis route. Dupreeh is too cheap at $6k, and Lucky is basically free at $4.6k. Plus, no one outside of Zywoo has that great of stats for Vitality, so they don’t project all that well, which always leads to them coming in under-owned and opponent one-offs being popular on 2 game slates.
Naturally, this makes me want to one-off someone from EG. By someone I mean oBo or Michu. We’ve seen both guys put up solid numbers in losses, hell on Thursday Michu had the 2nd best score from the game despite being swept (although that was partially due to Magisk eating up every kill in sight for Astralis). I’ll also likely have one or two EG stacks in MME, as I do think there’s a better chance than the 12% implied odds that they win.
On the Liquid side, don’t overlook Grim. I’ve mentioned it in what feels like every article about Liquid these days, but he’s been a real key to Liquid’s success lately. And he has the most 4k/aces of late, showing his explosive upside.
Zywoo is of course the top captain if you can fit him. However, with pricing pretty tight, Zywoo, Elige, and Naf are fairly tough to fit without a couple of major punts. I like the mid-range for captain on this slate. My favorites are the aforementioned Grim, and Shox and Apex from Vitality. If I can fit Misutaaa in my lineup he’s another guy I like at captain, but I’m not sure I’ll be able to fit him.
I don’t hate going full punt with Kyojin or Stewie. Kyojin lately keeps having one really good map and following it up with a terrible one. If he can even just string together one good map and one okay one he could be a solid captain, particularly in 3/3 lineups. Stewie also occasionally shows high upside, as he’ll randomly go for 25 kills on a map every now and then. I don’t want a ton of exposure to either guy, but neither is a bad play in MME.
Good luck on Friday!