ESL Pro League continues on Wednesday, with 4 more games. They are:
Complexity (69% implied win probability) vs Mouz
Ence (51%) vs OG
BiG (72%) vs Godsent
EG (63%) vs Furia
This slate is tough from a pricing perspective. Col and BiG are priced up high as the big favorites on the slate, with EG a little below them. Both OG and Ence are pretty cheap, but that game is also a coinflip so it makes sense. My expectation is that most people are going to run Col + EG + OG/Ence. Col has been playing really well, projects better than BiG, and Mouz have looked truly awful at times lately (this isn’t actually entirely true, more on this in a minute). Outside of projecting worse than Col, BiG have looked shaky at times lately plus Godsent have had moments of brilliance in almost all of their matches, their problem is inconsistency. EG is priced cheaper than either team, which is why I group them separately, then OG/Ence save enough salary to make the lineup work. I expect OG to come in higher owned from that matchup even though they are technically ever so slight underdogs, as they project better as a whole than Ence.
This presents a couple of clear leverage spots for us. The first is BiG. I expect them to have around half the ownership of Col, which alone makes them a good play. But beyond that, as I mentioned earlier it’s not actually entirely true that Mouz have been horrible lately. In their 4 ESL matches they have: beat FaZe 2-0, beat Fnatic 2-1, lost to NiP 2-1 (map 3 going to overtime), and lost to Astralis 2-1 (arguably the best team in the world right now). Somehow they are doing this with 4 players putting up absolutely ghastly fantasy numbers, which feeds into our perception of them being terrible. In reality they are playing decent Counterstrike, so this may not be the walk in the park for Complexity that I think most DFS players will be expecting. I’d even consider running my BiG lineups back with a Ropz one-off to maximize your leverage here (I will not be running any Mouz stacks, they are simply too bad for fantasy everywhere else besides Ropz).
The 2nd leverage spot is Ence. With OG projecting better and priced around the same I expect most of the field to land on that side of the matchup. This game is truly a coinflip, and I’ll take the lower owned side of that coin. I’ll definitely have shares of each, but I’ll be more heavy on Ence here.
One last leverage spot that is actually a lot more interesting than I first thought is Furia. A cursory look at the stats shows EG has dominated them this year. EG is 5-0 in series, and 10-3 in maps against Furia in 2020. However, Furia has at least 10 round wins in every single one of their map losses, and the overall round score this year is 196-171. Sure, there have probably been a few spots where EG play a round or 2 extra safe knowing they are about to close out, but still that’s only 53% of the rounds in EG’s favor. That’s a far cry from the domination that 5-0 matches and 10-3 maps implies. Furia are as cheap as you’ll ever see them too, so they are a nice pivot off of the OG/Ence game entirely.
On the EG side of that game, the stats have finally started to normalize with Brehze and Cerq basically overtaking Ethan in both 3 month and 1 month fp/r. Ethan is the cheapest of the 3 on Wednesday though, so I do expect him to carry quite a bit of ownership.
Godsent are the only team I have’t really touched on at all yet. While I like BiG as a leverage play off of Col, I’ll have some Godsent stacks as well. One of these days Godsent are going to put it together for a full series, and I’ll be damned if I don’t have them when they do. It will be a small chunk of my lineups, but I’ll definitely have some.
BlameF is the obvious choice for top captain on the slate. With no Zywoo or S1mple on the slate he projects as the clear number 1 scorer. He’s expensive, but when I do run Col lineups I am going to do what I can to get him in at captain. Poizon is finally priced appropriately, which should keep his ownership down. I like him as an alternative to BlameF that saves a tiny bit of salary, and he still has top score on the slate potential.
Even though I’m only using Ropz as a one-off, I like him at captain. If Mouz do manage to win, it will likely be on his back, giving him a clear path to the top score of the day.
Any of Xantares, Syrson, and Tabsen make for fine captains on Wednesday. Since I don’t expect any to be overly owned, I’ll have a smattering of each across my BiG lineups.
On the other side, Farlig has really stepped his play up of late and will be my captain of choice for Godsent. You can make a case for any of Maden, Styko, and Zehn as well, but I’ll stick with Farlig and his awp. They should all be low owned enough that even playing them in the flex is good leverage.
From the OG/Ence game, I’ll be running Allu from the Ence side and Valde/Mantuu from the OG side.
From EG it will be either Brehze or Cerq if I run them at captain at all. I’ll probably have a few but I actually prefer the Furia side. I’ll stay away from arT and Vini, but any of Kscerato, Hen1, and Yuurih make for interesting, low owned captain plays on Wednesday.
That’s it from me, good luck on Wednesday!