Blast Premier starts on Thursday, and unfortunately they do 2 games a day, which means 2 game slates are back for the foreseeable future. Lock on Thursday is at 10:30am EDT and the games are:
Astralis (75% implied win probability) vs EG
Vitality (58%) vs Liquid
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Glaive is out on paternity leave, Xyp9x is back in. Magisk will move to IGL. Last time he was IGL it really impacted his fragging, keep an eye on that again here.
Brehze is taking a leave to focus on his mental health, and Spellan will be standing in for him. Don’t play Brehze.
Even though EG have 25% implied odds, I think there’s an even lower percent chance they win than that. Brehze is too critical for them, and Spellan was struggling in T3 play most recently. I have 0 interest in EG stacks, and will only have limited oBo or Michu one offs.
On the Astralis side, I mentioned above but Magisk is back at IGL. IGL’ing really hurt his fragging last time he did it, so I’m going to try to come in under the field on him, as I expect him to be popular. I’m going to load up on Lucky and Bubzkji since they’re underpriced, and I’m also going to force some Xyp9x in too. I have no idea why DK made him the most expensive player on the team, but that should keep his ownership down a bit.
I also think the odds in the Vitality/Liquid game are too close. Vitality should be more like 65% favorites in my opinion. Liquid went on a nice run during ESL Pro League, but I think that was a product of facing weak competition more than anything. Non-Zywoo Vitality often come in under-rostered, and I’d expect that to be the case again. Misutaaa is a solid play, although Astralis have such cheap options that he might be higher owned than normal.
If you MME you almost have to play some Liquid lineups, and I’d make a point to include Grim in them. He didn’t have a massive pop off series like Fallen did during ESL, but he was really solid throughout, and if Liquid pull off this upset it will likely be in large part because of Grims excellent play. Also, Zywoo one off will absolutely not be sneaky if you do decide to stack Liquid. I almost never do this, the numbers do show it works, but a 3-1 with Liquid + Zywoo is somewhat interesting on this slate. If Liquid can win in 3 close maps that could easily be the takedown, particularly if Astralis win ugly or EG save a lot.
It’s Zywoo then it’s everyone else on this slate. Astralis spread their kills around fairly evenly, it feels unlikely someone will top Zywoo. If someone were to do it though, it would probably be Dupreeh or Lucky, they’ll be my captains of choice from the Danes. I also like pivoting to Misutaaa within Vitality. If Vitality dominate, sometimes Zywoo doesn’t have to do a ton.
Of course, in Liquid lineups it’s a good idea to play Naf or Elige captain. I slightly prefer Naf but both are fine plays. They both should have fairly low rostership as Zywoo is going to be massively owned at captain, and I’d imagine Astralis players make up most of the remaining rostership.
One last note, don’t feel like you need to use 100% of the salary cap on this slate. There are plenty of cheap good plays, and leaving a bunch of salary on the table should help you be duped less.
Good luck on Thursday!