DK smartened up on Wednesday and gave us a 4 game slate from IEM qualifiers. Lock is at 11:30 am EDT and the games are:
Faze (92% implied win probability) vs OPAA
Fiend (51%) vs Copenhagen Flames
Skade (80%) vs Anonymo
Dignitas (52%) vs Mad Lions
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
There’s a lot of sub risk/guys no longer playing on this slate.
Oxygen has been benched by Skade, don’t play him.
Kei and Mynio are no longer playing for Anonymo, don’t play them.
Tudson is a sub for Mad Lions. He plays Nuke and Dust2. On Nuke he subs in for Sausol, and on Dust2 he subs in for JL. Mad Lions plays both of those maps fairly frequently, and Nuke is Dignitas’ go-to map. Dig barely plays Dust2, so I could definitely see Mad Lions trying to pick it. If they do that and Dig picks Nuke, Tudson might actually play 2 maps (and if Mad Lions sweep that means the whole series). That said, I’m not going to play any of Tudson, Sausol, or JL because I think there’s a strong chance at the very least Nuke is played and possibly Nuke and Dust2.
Faze are overpriced on this slate. Even though they’re all but guaranteed to win there’s still only 5 kills to go around every round. I guess in cash it makes sense to play a couple of them, but in GPPs there are a number of teams I like better.
Specifically, I like the teams that are the “underdogs” in games that are really coinflips. That is of course Mad Lions and Copenhagen Flames. Of course, there are only 3 players on Mad Lions who I’m keeping in my player pool, which is unfortunate, but fortunately Woro2k is one of the guys who no longer subs out. “S1mple Jr” has unreal stats, his .92 FP/r over the past 3 months are a full .17 FP/r above 2nd on the slate. Expect Woro to have plenty of ownership, but I still think he’s an excellent play as on a 4 game slate his ownership shouldn’t be that bad.
nicoodoz is a bit underpriced for CPHF, I like pairing him with Roej and/or Jabbi and/or Zyphon (Zyphon is also a bit underpriced).
There’s no insane value play(s) that stick out on this slate, so ownership should really be spread out. Outside of the two “underdogs” I highlighted above, I’m really just going to focus on the fundamentals, by which I basically just mean playing 3/2/1 lineups, and making sure not to play opponents. 2/2/2 is also fine, but I don’t think the tournaments are big enough that you need to run 2/2/2.
Woro2k is definitely my top captain play on the slate. As I already mentioned, his stats are head and shoulders above anyone else on the slate, and I don’t think his ownership will be overwhelming given that he’s technically on an underdog. On the other side of the same matchup, Forest actually has the next best FP/r on the slate of full time players (Sausol is technically 2nd).
A few other plays I like at captain are:
Again, I think all the Faze players are too expensive and really don’t love any at captain.
Good luck Wednesday!