ESL Pro League picks back up on Tuesday, with a 4 game slate. The games are:
Spirit (62% implied win probability) vs FaZe
Vitality (63%) vs Fnatic
Astralis (66%) vs NiP
Chaos (79%) vs Triumph
Pricing looks fairly tight at first glance, except there is one glaring error in the pricing that really loosens everything up. That error of course is es3tag. es3tag has played the last 3 matches for Astralis, all wins, and is in the Dreamhack lineup, which my understanding is they cannot sub during as it would affect their Road to Rio points. All of this points towards him playing on Tuesday. Now assuming that he is playing, es3tag is 2nd on the slate in 3 month fp/r (granted he has just over a month of stats in that calculation as he wasn’t playing prior to the player break) and 3rd in 1 month fp/r. Despite this, he is priced all the way down at $4.4k, cheapest on the entire slate of players who are actually playing. He is an absolute free square. I’ll probably have him in every single one of my lineups including plenty at captain. The only exception would be if I decide I want to play some NiP lineups, and I might still use es3tag even in those.
es3tag lets you jam favorites, which is my plan for this slate. I don’t like any of the underdogs, FaZe and Fnatic have looked terrible lately, NiP are up against an in form Astralis aka the best team in the world, and Triumph simply cannot compete with anyone else in this tournament with their current roster. I can see a small case for FaZe and Fnatic, so if do go to underdogs it will likely be either of those 2, but again I really expect to stay with the favorites.
This is possibly the latest into an article that I’ve ever mentioned him, but uh Zywoo is only $9.0k on this slate. There are 4 players priced higher than him. Now, no disrespect to those players, as they are all very good players but…ummm what? Zywoo is the best player in the world, has the highest fp/r on the slate both over the past 3 months and 1 month, and has higher upside than everyone else in the world. There is exactly 1 situation where Zywoo shouldn’t be the highest priced player on the slate, and that’s if he’s an underdog and S1mple is playing a tomato can. Last time I check Navi isn’t even on this slate so Zywoo is absolutely underpriced. I’ll have plenty of him at captain.
Now, those 4 players who are priced above him should all have pretty low captain ownership. I don’t love Device or Magisk inherently at cpt, as I already mentioned es3tag has been their best fantasy player of late, but the ownership leverage should be outstanding. I do like mir quite a bit, he has top score of the slate upside, and is a strong play. Xeppaa fits into the same category is mir. It is worth noting however, that Xeppaa’s 1 month stats are much lower than his 3 month, and fairly middling at that (.54 fp/r). I’m mostly attributing this to the fact that Chaos has been losing over 50% of their maps lately, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Lastly, I’ll have plenty of es3tag captain. I’m hopeful that the slight chance he doesn’t play scares people off of using him at captain, but he’s a great play. You can fit almost anyone you want with how much salary he saves, and there is a legitimate chance he puts up the top score on the slate.
Good luck on Tuesday!