We have another 4 game slate on Sunday from the ESL Pro League. The games are:
Heroic (70% implied win probability) vs Godsent
Navi (60%) vs OG
Ence (72%) vs AGO
Liquid (55%) vs Furia
Pricing on Sunday is somewhat tight, with a few noticeable exceptions. Whenever this happens, we get players who becomes super chalky despite not always projecting all that well. This makes for some interesting leverage opportunities.
S1mple is definitely going to be chalky, but he of course projects very well. He was 75% owned the other day in the big GPP. I don’t expect his ownership to come in quite that high on Sunday as Navi are much smaller favorites against OG than they were against AGO, but at only $9.0k it could come fairly close. S1mple has the highest upside on the slate, and the highest likelihood of hitting that upside. Electronic is still 2nd on Navi in fp/r over the past 3 months, but his fp/r over the past month is actually only .01 ahead of Perfecto. Perfecto has also just barely moved ahead of Flamie for 3rd on the team in 3 month fp/r. Now, all of these raw numbers are pretty mediocre (in the ballpark of 0.5 fp/r, good is generally over 0.6), but if you are looking for a salary saver to pair with S1mple, Perfecto could be your guy at only $6.2k. There are a couple of plays in that range that I like better, but they will also likely carry more ownership.
The OG side of that game will likely go underowned. Much like with the team against Zywoo, the team against S1mple almost always has less ownership than it should. Mantuu and Valde are the likeliest to score well, but all 5 players on OG are above 0.5 fp/r for both 3 months and 1 month splits. Aleksib and NBK are likely to carry <5% ownership, and their low low prices allow you to fit anyone else you want pretty much.
I was surprised to see Heroic as such big favorites over Godsent, but this is a Godsent team that just can’t seem to put it together right now. They have flashes of brilliance, looking dominant at times, but then they just absolutely fall apart. Today they won map 1 16-3 vs OG then proceeded to lose the next 2 maps with a combined score of 32-10. Niko is the most expensive player on the slate at $9.6k, and I expect his ownership to be fairly low as everyone will be playing S1mple at a $600 discount. I love him as a pivot to pair with a cheap OG stack. Teses and to a lesser extent Stavn (who is pretty expensive himself at $8.6k) are likely to carry more ownership, and Cadian might garner a bit himself too. Teses is likely to be the highest owned of the bunch, which means I prefer the other 3, as Niko and Stavn have both outscored Teses by fairly decent margins lately while Cadian isn’t far behind him.
I simply cannot quit Godsent. They have 4 solid players and when they’re on they look like a top tier team, the biggest problem is they are usually “on” for about 1 half of 1 map per series it seems. Will they put it all together and play 2 (or 3) strong maps against Heroic? Probably not but I’m going to have some just in case. Zehn, Farlig, Maden, and Styko are super close in scoring and all make for viable plays. Farlig in particular is way too cheap at only $5.2k, he’s been Godsent’s leading scorer in fp/r over the past month.
While I can’t quit Godsent, I am just about ready to quit AGO. The appeal to them previously was that mhL and company would have super low ownership with big upside should they pull off an upset. The problem became that it appears everyone else caught on to that, and I believe mhL was actually the most owned player in their series against OG where they were big underdogs. They got crushed in that series, and mhL had a rough time, so I think his ownership will drop back to the 15-20% range on Sunday, but that’s still higher than I’d like it to be to make him a good leverage play. I’ll be staying away from AGO here as they are definitely the worst EU team in this tournament.
For Ence, it’s been the Allu show of late. While everyone else on the team has been performing at close to their 3 month stats, Allu has massively stepped his game up, his 1 month fp/r is over 40% higher than his 3 month (and remember, all of his 1 month stats count towards his 3 month too) getting all the way up to an elite .76 fp/r. Now that Jamppi has been priced up to $7.8k I actually prefer Sunny as my stacking partner for Allu (if you decide to stack Ence, an Allu 1 off is perfectly fine). Sunny is tied with Jamppi for 2nd on the team in fp/r over the past month, and he, Jamppi, and Sergej are all within .05 of each other in the 3 month data. Sunny comes in at only $6.0k, making him a much better value than Jamppi and slightly better than Sergej ($6.8k).
Now, at the beginning of this section I mentioned some mispriced players, and so far it’s really only been S1mple (and Farlig but he’s on an underdog) who is too cheap, so you’re probably wondering who I was talking about since I’ve covered 6 out of the 8 teams. Well as usual these days I was talking about Liquid. They have finally priced Grim to where his ownership and projections dictate he should be priced, all the way up at $9.2k. His projections are still massively inflated from his Triumph days, but his 1 month is now only team Liquid. I can’t recall ever having seen a bigger drop off from 3 month to 1 month (provided an at least moderate sample size, Grim’s 1 month is 675 rounds, or roughly 25 maps, a good amount of data for 1 month). Grim still sits at .83 fp/r over 3 months, tied with S1mple for tops on the slate. His 1 month though, .49. That puts him in the company of players like flamie, Perfecto, and Borup. It’s below NBK and Aleksib. I could go on but you get the point. He is not a player worth $9.5k right now. I’ll be entirely fading him.
While DK priced Grim up, they apparently decided they can only have 2 Liquid players be high priced, because they dropped NAF all the way down to $6.4k. He’s 3rd on the team in scoring over the past month with Grim on the team, but at .62 fp/r that’s still a very respectable number. Twistzz is actually 2nd on the team in fp/r over the past month, yet he sits at only $7.2k. Expect both him and NAF to be highly owned, probably higher owned than they should be given that this matchup is nearly a coinflip.
I’m not convinced that Furia should be underdogs in this matchup. They’ve won 3 out of the last 4 series against Liquid (which dates back to Nitro) and the only series since Grim joined Liquid. Besides Grim, pricing on both teams is very similar, so I expect more people to gravitate to the “favorite” in Liquid. Give me all the Furia then. Well, not literally all as I’ll definitely have some Liquid too, but I’ll be much heavier on the Furia side of this game. Kscerato in particular is way too cheap at only $5.8k. The rest of Furia is priced about where they should be, arT is back down to $6.6k and 3rd on the team after his brief stint at $10k and top price on the slate. Everyone from Furia is in play in this spot.
S1mple is clearly the top captain choice on the day. He could push 20% but as I mentioned earlier not only does he have the highest upside on the slate he’s also the most likely to hit that upside.
Allu is my 2nd favorite captain on the slate. Only $200 (flex pricing) cheaper than S1mple, I expect him to have a lot less captain ownership. He doesn’t have quite the same upside, and won’t hit it as often, but if S1mple struggles Allu could be the slate’s top scorer.
Niko is also a strong captain choice. He should go overlooked behind S1mple, Allu, and maybe even Grim depending on how much it’s caught on that Grim isn’t actually a fantasy stud for Liquid. He’s a nice leverage play off of all 3 of those players. I’ll also have a little Stavn, Teses, and maybe even a little Cadian. None of those 3 should have much captain ownership, probably the most on Teses, but it should be pretty low compared to his flex ownership so I actually like him better as a captain play.
For Godsent, I’ll probably stay away from them at captain as their scoring is so spread out and even. Simply playing them in the flex should be plenty of leverage. I may have 1 or 2 Farlig captain lineups if I think the extreme savings are worth it, but I don’t really think that’s necessary on this slate.
Just like in the flex, I’ll be under the field on Liquid here. While in a vacuum NAF and Twistzz are good plays, I think the ownership will be too high relative to their chances to be the slates top scorer, so I may only hedge with a couple of lineups each (if I decide to hedge at all).
On the other side, I like Yuurih, Hen1, and Kscerato at captain, as they all have the upside to put up the top score on the slate if everything breaks right. arT and Vini I expect to have a bit tougher of a time against higher tier competition, and while I like them in the flex still I won’t be playing them at captain.
Good luck on Sunday!