Draftkings is back to a 4 game slate today, as the OG/Godsent game that got moved from Friday is on the slate. The games are:
OG (59% implied win probability) vs Godsent
Vitality (70%) vs Faze
BiG (52%) vs G2
EG (83%) vs Gen.G
Pricing is pretty loose on Saturday unless you are attempting to jam in Zywoo + EG’s studs (mostly Ethan and Brehze, Cerq isn’t too expensive). OG comes in pretty underpriced as a favorite and Xantares and Tabsen have also seen their prices reduced pretty significantly.
I expect the ownership to be pretty concentrated on Zywoo, EG, and OG.
EG are the biggest favorites on the slate and should crush a Gen.G team that just announced that daps would be stepping down soon. I’m not sure if daps will actually be playing or not but it shouldn’t really matter (and if you were going to be playing daps on this slate you should probably reexamine your process anyways). Ethan still has the highest fp/r over the past 3 months but as the most expensive player on the slate at $9.8k I expect Brehze ($8.6k) and Cerq ($7.8k) to be more popular. This makes Ethan a nice leverage play in tournaments. Both Tarik and Stanislaw actually project pretty well and should put up fine value numbers if you want to force in some studs elsewhere in your lineup. They should also come in lower owned than Brehze and Cerq so I don’t mind them for tournaments either.
As usual Zywoo will be by far the most owned player on the slate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up around 70% total ownership and ~30% captain. FaZe have looked really bad recently though, so Zywoo is not where I am going to try to differentiate on Saturday. The rest of Vitality is perpetually low owned, so a small Vitality stack is a decent play on Saturday. Shox is my top choice but Rpk has been playing well recently and offers a bit more salary savings. I’ll have very little FaZe here, but it’s definitely a high leverage play as Zywoo’s opponent always has lower ownership than they probably should. I expect everyone on FaZe to come in under 15%, maybe even 10% owned.
OG are smallish favorites against Godsent, but I expect them to be wildly popular. Overall they are priced about the same, and no one is over $7.6k from OG (Valde). They fit nicely with Zywoo + EG and I expect many people to go here, making them much more chalky than their 59% implied win probability dictates they should be. Naturally, I like the Godsent side of this game. I expect their ownership to come in significantly below OG’s, and the odds dictate that they have a real shot to win this game. Farlig may end up fairly popular since he is priced down all the way to $5.8k, but his teammates likely won’t be. Everyone on the team except Krystal is viable for tournaments.
Kind of like the Big/Heroic game on Thursday, I expect Big/G2 to go largely overlooked on Saturday. Of course on Thursday S1mple/Navi smashed so the pivot to Big didn’t work, but the ownership leverage was decent (Big’s studs had about half the ownership of S1mple, although at ~30% it was a little higher than I expected). On Saturday with both Zywoo and EG I expect BiG to some in even lower, Syrson in particular. For some reason DK didn’t drop Syrson’s price ($9.0k) at all even though they dropped Xantares ($8.0k) a bit and Tabsen ($7.2k) a ton. Tabsen will likely see a decent amount of ownership, with Xantares a little lower and Syrson’s virtually non-existant. It’s to look at Zywoo and EG and then click on Syrson, but if you plan on playing any FaZe lineups pairing them with Syron could give you double the leverage. On the G2 side, they have been a fantasy nightmare besides Nexa. Nexa is expensive at $8.8k, but this matchup is basically a coinflip. Hunter is the only other G2 player with respectable numbers recently, but KennyS showed some signs of life the other day. The Nexa one off will likely be popular but G2 stacks should be fairly low owned.
As always, Zywoo has the highest upside on the slate. He will undoubtedly be the highest owned captain, but there’s enough value here Saturday to play him. I will come in at or above the field here (which I expect to be about 30%).
From EG I expect Cerq to be popular and Brehze somewhat popular. I like Ethan as a pivot here as he could put up the top score on the team. If Zywoo doesn’t pop off the top score on the team could be the top scorer on the slate as EG are likely to crush Gen.G.
From OG both Valde and Mantuu are viable captains, and I think that while their flex ownership will be high, it will likely be much lower at captain. I actually like them more as captain plays than I do as flex, but that said I am still going to trend towards the Godsent side of this matchup.
While I really like Godsent, I don’t love them at captain. They have 4 players who spread the scoring out fairly evenly, which lowers the likelihood of hitting a ceiling type score a bit. Zehn, Maden, and Farlig all score about the same so any of those 3 could be used at captain. Farlig is super cheap and really lets you get whoever else you want in the lineup, but that will probably also raise his ownership a tiny bit. I don’t expect it to raise it to a point of being not worth playing, but just keep that in mind when you build Farlig captain lineups (maybe leave a few hundred salary cap free to differentiate).
From BiG, Syrson should have almost no ownership, while Xantares and Tabsen will probably have a bit. All 3 make for fine captains and good leverage plays off of Zywoo and EG. On the G2 side I’m only going to be using Nexa as a captain, everyone else on that team hasn’t shown the upside lately.
That’s it for me, good luck Saturday!