Welcome back. Saturday marks the semifinals of ESL Pro League, and the last multi-game slate of the tournament. We have a 2 gamer yet again, with lock still at 10:00 am EDT. The games are:
Vitality (55% implied win probability) vs OG
Navi (65%) vs Heroic
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flamie is in the player pool, don’t play him.
Vitality are playing some pretty solid CS right now. By that I mean Zywoo is absolutely unstoppable and everyone else is doing just enough to bring the team over the line. Meanwhile, OG have had a much more full team effort. What that means for DFS is, as seemingly always, the non-Zywoo Vitality players are going to come in underowned. Of course, it’s possible we see a repeat of the Gambit series where even though Vitality swept, Zywoo carried so hard that Zywoo + 2 Gambit was actually optimal, but I think it’s more likely that at least a 2-1 of Vitality is optimal if Vitality do manage to win, and especially if the sweep. Misutaaa has established himself as the #2 guy, and should come in underowned since he’s decently expensive.
In the other game, Navi are firing on all cylinders right now. I don’t think there’s a team in the world that can compete with them when S1mple’s supporting cast are playing as well as they are. I expect them to beat Heroic, who really struggled with Liquid. No offense to Liquid, who played surprisingly well this tournament, but they’re no Navi. I’m going to be close to all in on Navi on Saturday. Perfecto in particular has been playing really well this tournament and is now underpriced.
It’s S1mple vs Zywoo for the top captain throne. Honestly, I couldn’t tell you who I prefer between the two. My model prefers S1mple, but both guys are capable of absolutely massive games. If I’m going to pivot it’s likely to go mid-range or cheap. Perfecto is my favorite pivot as he frees up cash to play both S1mple and Zywoo without completely punting the rest of the lineup, but Misutaaa is also interesting. He has shown big upside and comes at a pretty significant discount to Zywoo and S1mple.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!