Going to be a quick one today, as the slate actually only has 3 games because of a scheduling change that Draftkings didn’t account for, and unfortunately the most interesting game is off the slate. Draftkings has pushed back lock to 11:30am EST, as the OG/Godsent game that got moved to Saturday was the 8am game. The games that are left are:
Complexity (61% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Astralis (72%) vs Mouz
Cloud9 (74%) vs Triumph
It’s worth mentioning that the Cloud9 roster recently learned they are going to be dropped. I guess credit to the org for trying to find them a new home and not immediately dropping them, but nevertheless I’m sure this has been a tough couple of days for the players. The question becomes will they be totally checked out, or will they band together and try to prove to a new org that they deserve to be picked up? Honestly, it might not really matter against Triumph, a team they clearly outclass.
Unfortunately the OG/Godsent game that got moved was the most interesting one. It had the closest line and the cheapest pricing.
Of the games that are left, I’m not really interested in any of the underdogs. You can make a small case for Fnatic or a Ropz 1-off, but overall it looks to be a favorite heavy slate. If I MME I’ll have a couple of Triumph lineups, but I think there is too much of a gap between C9 and them even if C9 is a little checked out. Everyone is going to land on similar lineup combinations, and it’s going to be a matter of which 4th or 5th fragger from a favorite can score the highest.
I think most people will pay up for Col (BlameF and Poizon being the most popular), grab Dupreeh and maybe Magisk from Astralis, and then round out their lineups with the low end Cloud9 guys (motm and Sonic, not so much JT). To make matters worse, Astralis is again the last game of the day meaning there is almost no chance they announce their starting lineup before the slate locks. I don’t see why they’d go away from Es3tag as they have won their last 2 matches with him in, so maybe he comes in a bit underowned as people will be nervous Bubz might play.
oSee could end up underowned, as BlameF is cheaper and projects better, so he makes for a nice pivot, but there really aren’t a ton of ways to differentiate yourself this slate that don’t involve playing Rush or JT. I’ll personally be playing lower volume than I usually do as the slate sets up for a lot of chalk, not many pivots, and not really any viable underdogs. If you think an underdog has a shot at winning, you should have great leverage as I expect all 3 to have barely any ownership.
Captain is a spot you can try to differentiate on Friday.
From Col, BlameF and Poizon will be popular, differentiate by playing oBo and Konfig. Recognize when you do this though, that your chances of hitting become lower but if you do hit you’re likely to hit bigger.
For Astralis, Dupreeh will likely be popular after his big game and cost savings, but I don’t know that any of the 4 “guaranteed” starters will be unpopular so there isn’t really a great pivot. Maybe Device since he’s priced up and his numbers (and thus projections) are down a bit lately.
Lastly, I already mentioned oSee should go underowned, and the same is true at captain. If you can fit him I like him as a captain play.