The playoffs continue on Friday, giving us yet another 2 game slate that locks at 10:00 am EDT. The games are:
Navi (77% implied win probability) vs Ence
Heroic (55%) vs Liquid
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flamie and Allu are in the player pool, don’t play them.
As it’s another 2 game slate I’m going to take another stand against the Vegas line (and thus ownership to an extent). I think 55% implied odds for Heroic are way to low. It should be more like 65-70% in my opinion. Liquid had by far the easiest group then played a Fnatic team that just made roster changes to open the playoffs. They’re playing well but you can’t rely on Fallen to consistently pop off like he did against Fnatic at this point in his career (not that I’m still bitter about him being 50% owned strictly because of price and having his best series since February or anything).
Within Heroic, I would be a bit careful with using their projections. They haven’t played all that much lately, only 589 rounds in the past 3 months. That’s a small enough sample that a really good or really bad series or two can make a big impact on overall numbers. For example, Cadian is actually 2nd lowest on the team in FP/r over the past 3 months, and when you shift that data to 1 month he moves to last. Now, it is possible that Heroic made some fundamental strategy changes over the break, especially with all the drama around former coach Hunden allegedly trying to sell their playbook, but I think it’s more likely we’re simply seeing some variance. I’d expect Cadian’s numbers to eventually bounce back to be at the top of the team. At the same time, Stavn and Refrezh have insane numbers so far this tournament. Again though, I’d expect them to eventually regress back towards their long term averages as well. Long story short don’t fade Cadian, Teses, and/or Sjuush to go all in on Stavn and Refrezh. I’ll have a healthy mix of all 5 members of Heroic in my lineups.
I will say if you want to play Liquid, don’t sleep on Grim. His FP/r has been creeping up lately, and he’s only .01 behind Elige and .05 behind Naf over the past 3 months. With Fallen likely getting some recency bias ownership that might otherwise go to Grim, Grim is a great play in Liquid stacks.
In the other game, Ence have been on a great run this tournament, but I fear it’s coming to an end. Navi are absolutely locked in, and S1mple is still S1mple. I don’t know what was up with pricing here, but for whatever reason B1t is less expensive than Perfecto by $1.4k. Sure, Perfecto’s FP/r is better this tournament, but that’s buoyed by a couple of insane Nuke maps where he’s been gifted 1v4’s and clutches left and right. Again, I expect the numbers to regress back to their means sooner rather than later, B1t is still a better raw points fantasy play than Perfecto. At only $6.6k B1t is as close to a free square as we’re going to get on this slate. He should be locked into cash and SE style lineups, get cute elsewhere.
I have 0 interest in stacking Ence, but Doto is an interesting one off. If he lets you fit a lineup you wouldn’t otherwise be able to, I’d use him as a one off, otherwise I’ll probably jam in 3 Navi.
S1mple is far and away the top captain. All 3 of the other teams on this slate have been fairly balanced scoring, and not one clear star. Couple that with Navi’s win probability, and you have a clear-cut top captain. You could pivot within Navi to either Electronic or B1t in the hopes that Navi win so hard that S1mple doesn’t have to do much, but he plays aggressively so he usually still is the top scorer in stomps.
From Heroic, my favorite captain is Teses. He flashes ceiling that can compete with S1mple and should have low ownership. Refrezh is also a fine option if you maybe want to stack the 3 expensive Navi guys (aka no B1t), which I like in GPPs.
If you play Liquid it’s typically Elige or Naf who completely pop off. If tournaments were bigger I’d like Grim too, but with the field sizes as they are it feels a bit thin to me.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!