Day 2 of The Dreamhack Open is Sunday. We have another 4 game slate featuring 2 NA games and 2 EU games. Unfortunately the “big” GPP came a little short of filling on Saturday, so Sunday’s is even smaller. Let’s get it filled!
Unlike Saturday’s slate, literally none of these teams have made any roster changes recently. All of them have been featured on plenty of Draftkings slates, with the exception of TeamOne. They are a Brazilian team that’s a clear tier below the top teams, although they do have some exciting young players who could be the next big stars. It is worth noting they beat Cloud9 in a best of 1 (played on Nuke) on Saturday, who they will now take on in a best of 3 on Sunday.
Pricing is once again tight on Sunday, and unlike Saturday where Draftkings just didn’t price up 1 heavy favorite (Chaos), all 3 big favorites are priced up. There is no value to be had on any of the heavy favorites (Complexity, Cloud 9, and Furia). Obo comes in as the “best” point per dollar value from one of those teams in our projections, and he is only the 21st best value overall. A lot of people are going to be heavy on the Spirit/OG game, as 4 players from OG and 2 from Spirit rate in the top 20 in terms of value. I think the ownership on OG is going to be thru the roof here, as that game is almost a coinflip and they priced like the other huge underdogs (with the exception of Mantuu).
I expect Furia and Complexity to split most of the ownership of the big favorites, with Cloud 9 coming in 3rd. Given that C9 just lost to TeamOne today (8/8), I think that will move a lot of people off of Cloud9 and onto TeamOne so that they can fit more Furia and Complexity players. This is the route I see myself going as well. I don’t expect to be super contrarian on Sunday. Given how small the tournaments are now, the $10 on Sunday is 28 entries max, 941 total, it’s less necessary to go way off the board to create unique lineups. TeamOne still shouldn’t be much over 20% owned even if they are the most popular of the big underdogs, which is perfectly fine with these smaller fields.
I think Forze is worth taking a few shots on, as they are a solid team in their own right. Complexity had been playing great before the break, but who knows if the layoff helped or hurt them. I probably won’t be super heavy here, but I’ll definitely have them in a few lineups.
Lastly, while I think Furia will stomp Yeah!, Dumau at 5200 is a still too cheap. He is a good player, and with how aggressive Furia plays, he could put up solid numbers even in a 2-0 loss. I would even be okay with running him in the same lineup as Furia players.
I like captains from either side of the Spirit/OG series today. Both mir and mantuu have the same upside as all the players priced near 10k, but at a fairly significant discount. oBo is also in that same price range and has similar upside, so I like him as a captain as well. Lastly, when I stack TeamOne that means I’m assuming they are either going to win or come close to winning, so I like either malbsMD or prt as a captain in those lineups. The money you save allow you to pretty much play whoever you want in the rest of the lineup.
That does it for today, let’s get those tournaments filled!