CSGO is back in the lobby on Thursday as the CBCS Elite League resumes play for the playoffs. We have a 2 game slate with lock at 4:15 pm EDT. The games are:
Paqueta (83% implied win probability) vs Detona
Bravos (85%) vs SWS
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Rosters appear correct on DK.
This will likely be one of the chalkier slates in recent memory. There’s 2 huge favorites, and one team is fairly mispriced. Paqueta are a very balanced team, over the last 3 months only .16 FP/r separates their top player (Dav1d) from their bottom player (iDK). Over the past month that gap closes to .08 FP/r (same top and bottom players). However Dav1d costs $10.2k while iDK is only $6.2k (and Khtex is only $6.8k).
On the other hand, Bravos has a gap of .26 FP/r between their top player (Tuurtle) and bottom player (Leomonster) both over 3 months and 1 month. Perhaps more importantly, Tuurtle scores .81 FP/r and JOTA is at .76 compared to a paltry .66 for Dav1d. What I’m getting at is the “optimal” build for this slate is pretty obvious. The top players from Bravos and value from Paqueta. Paying up within Paqueta will likely be surprisingly contrarian given how big of favorites they are. Wood7 could also see low ownership on the Bravos side as people will likely pay up or go all the way down to Leomonster.
Now, what I haven’t talked about at all are the underdogs. Even in losses, nqz and gafalo are capable of putting up very strong point per dollar stores. I like either of them as one-offs given their relatively low prices. For GPP’s I think both underdogs aren’t quite getting enough credit, especially SWS. It seems like every game of this tournament SWS have been big underdogs and then they come and either win or almost win. A big part of that has been new addition to the team Chay absolutely balling out so far this tournament, along with of course gafalo and then matios playing well. I’m not saying they should be favorites, but I think this game is closer to 75/25 than the 85/15 it’s currently priced at. On the Detona/Paqueta side, I think it’s only off by a couple percentage points, and mostly because nqz is good enough to carry a map basically on his own. I like SWS better as a GPP play.
If you’re playing both favorites you’re almost forced into a value captain. iDK, Leomonster, and Khtex are all solid plays, and hopefully they all split ownership a bit so none of them are too popular.
If you’re playing an underdog, you can open it up looking for raw score. Either gafalo or nqz, depending on which underdog you’re playing, are obvious choices, but don’t forget about the top fraggers on the favorite you are playing (I think running double dog with such small tournaments is too thin). Tuurtle, Jota, and Dav1d should all have relatively low captain ownership, Dav1d especially.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!