We’ve come to the conclusion of Group C, with one last slate of games. They all start at once, meaning lock isn’t until 2:00 pm EDT. The games are:
Navi (68% implied win probability) vs Faze
Fnatic (61%) vs EG
Mouz (52%) vs Big
Every team except EG is still alive to make the playoffs and even if anyone is locked into playoffs (I didn’t look up the scenarios because it shouldn’t matter), there’s still the 1st seed to play for which gives an important 1st round bye in said playoffs. Everyone should be giving max effort and I’d EG to be as well to try and grow as a team and salvage at least a game out of this event.
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
DK added a bunch of extra players into the pool again for some reason. Don’t play any of Golden, Stanislaw, Tarik, Flamie, or Coldzera.
Someone at DK must have taken offense to me complimenting their pricing all week because they royally screwed up Fnatic vs EG. For starters, EG are priced like the favorite. oBo is $2k more than Fnatic’s most expensive player, Michu is $1k more, and Brehze is equal to Fnatic’s most expensive player. But it doesn’t stop there because that most expensive player for Fnatic is…Krimz? What year does DK think it is? Additionally, Alex is 2nd most expensive. Mezii is 3rd most expensive and all the way at the bottom of the list? None other than Brollan, the player with the highest FP/r so far this event (Mezii is 2nd even after his abysmal performance Monday). Brollan is an absolute free square. Don’t overthink it in cash or SE. Hell, you could even play him with EG if you feel so inclined to play them. Speaking of EG, I do think they are an OK GPP play. They should have super low ownership because they are so mispriced. The tough thing is that to play EG you likely have to sacrifice elsewhere in your lineup, which doesn’t feel great on this slate. I’ll likely have a couple lineups in GPPs, but not many.
The sneakier outcome that the massive mispricing will lead to is the other 2 underdogs going under-owned. With Brollan and co so cheap, you can easily fit S1mple and his teammates, or S1mple and Ropz, or whoever you want really in your lineup. Because of this, Faze will likely go virtually unowned, and Big may also come in with much lower ownership than they should have. I’m going to make sure I have at least a few Faze lineups and a bunch of Big lineups in multi-entry. And don’t worry about leaving salary on the table when you make them, it’s fine to play Fnatic + Faze and leave a couple thousand on the table (although Faze are definitely a bit overpriced so you may still end up using the full salary).
There are two routes I expect to be popular at captain on this slate. Use Brollan at captain and load up on studs or use a stud (S1mple most likely) at captain and use Brollan’s savings to create a much stronger lineup than usual around that stud captain. As usually, Ropz will be the natural pivot off S1mple. I’m fine with both methods, but what I particularly like in GPPs is going mid-range captain. Players like Mezii, Frozen, Broky, and B1t should see lower ownership than normal because of the loose pricing/Brollan mispricing.
What I won’t be doing is pivoting off Brollan for another cheap captain. No one near him in pricing has anywhere close to the floor + ceiling combo that Brollan offers. I have him as the 4th highest projected player in my model in terms of raw points (trailing only S1mple, Mezii, and Ropz), so that fact that he’s $5.4k (flex price) makes him a way better captain option than anyone near him.
Good luck on Tuesday!