Welcome back. We’re on Day 3 of Group C at ESL Pro League. Lock is again at 7:30 EDT, and the games are:
Navi (76% implied win probability) vs Big
Faze (60%) vs Fnatic
Mouz (69%) vs EG
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flamie is in the player pool, don’t play him.
To DK’s credit, they’ve been doing a pretty good job of dialing in pricing as these groups move along. There’s really no one who is egregiously mispriced on this slate, but pricing also isn’t tight to the point of having to roster multiple complete punts.
On this slate, the team that I plan on being the most over the field on in Fnatic. They have a 40% implied win probability, but should see pretty low ownership (with the possible exception of Mezii). I like the pricepoint of everyone on Fnatic pretty much. Mezii and Brollan have elite upside but are both in the $7k’s. Krimz and Alex are both super cheap, and while Jackinho has struggled so far this tournament, he showed flashes of being a solid AWP before the player break.
The team I’ll likely end up under the field on is EG. As the NA representative I wish they were better, but they are really just having a hard time competing with these European teams. I think Brehze remains a trap until his T side role changes. He’s put up some big CT sides in this event, but he has such an aggressive role on the T side that it’s hard for him to do better than being traded after 1 kill at best in a ton of rounds.
I do think Tabsen is a bit underpriced for Big, but at the same time that means you’re either playing him in the same lineup as S1mple or fading S1mple, and I wouldn’t really recommend either of those things.
Speaking of S1mple, the world’s best player is absolutely on fire. He’s both over 1 FP/r and 1 kill per round in this event. Granted, Navi haven’t lost a map but with S1mple killing over 1 enemy per round how could they? If you can afford it, play him at captain.
However, pricing isn’t that loose, and there are definitely some options outside of S1mple that make sense on this slate. Mezii and Broky both offer a pretty decent savings from S1mple and can score at least close to him if they’re on their A game. Ropz is also one of the only other people on the slate who has an even comparable ceiling to S1mple, and makes for an interesting pivot in GPPs.
I’m not a huge fan of going all the way cheap at captain today, I likely won’t go below Brollan, EXCEPT for playing Tabsen captain in a GPP lineup or two. Big do have an almost 1/4 chance to win this game according to Vegas, and while I doubt that even in a loss S1mple would put up a “bad” score, he may not score bad for his price. Tabsen captain will let you load up on the best players from the other games, and gives you nice leverage over almost everyone else who will have S1mple in their lineup.
Good luck on Sunday!