Group C kicks off Friday, so we have 6 new teams. Lock is back to 7:30 am EDT, and the games are:

Big (63% implied win probability) vs EG

Navi (81%) vs Fnatic

Faze (50.5%) vs Mouz

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

There have been a lot of roster changes in this group. Just going in order of game time:

Big: Xantares is out (left to form Turkish superteam), Gade is in. Player pool is correct

EG: Stanislaw is “temporarily” stepping back, daps is in. Tarik is also in the player pool. Don’t play stan or tarik.

Navi: No changes but Flamie is in the player pool, don’t play him.

Fnatic: JW and Golden are out, Mezii and Alex are in. Don’t play JW or Golden.

Faze: No changes but Coldzera is in the player pool, don’t play him.

Mouz: No changes but ChrisJ is in the player pool, don’t play him.

Slate Analysis

This is a pretty unpredictable slate. On top of that pricing is super tight. That makes this a really hard slate.

I do think Mouz and Big are going to come in a bit underowned with everyone trying to fit S1mple into their lineups. While I’m obviously never going to tell you not to play S1mple, I like Mouz and Big quite a bit in GPP’s.

The team I’m going to intentionally come in under the field on is EG. I think they’ll likely get a good deal of ownership, but last time we saw them in EU they were really struggling, and I don’t think Daps is an upgrade over Stanislaw. Don’t get baited by Brehze’s price either, since oBo and Michu joined, he’s playing a super aggro role and dying a ton without many multi-kills.

I may also end up a bit over the field on FNC. I like the roster moves they’ve made, and while Navi is a brutal 1st matchup for the new squad, they should be better than the old version. If they can squeak out a map win or even 2 close losses, their cheap prices could be enough to fit studs in the other games.

Top Captains

S1mple is far and away the top captain if you can fit him. He’s been out of this world lately in terms of his stats, and Navi has risen to the #1 team in the world. However, fitting him is really tough. I like some midrange captains in case you can’t fit S1mple. My favorites are B1t, Gade, and Frozen. All of them are in a range that makes it a little easier to build.

Going super cheap at captain will likely be popular this slate. Acor is my favorite option if you’re going to go super cheap, but olofmeister and cerq are also in play. If you stack Fnatic, Jackinho isn’t a bad option either, as he’s still the AWP for Fnatic and is a decent player.

That’s it for me, good luck on Friday.

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