Group B wraps up on Thursday with one last 3 game slate. The game start simultaneously at 2 pm EDT, so we’ll have some extra time to build lineups. The games are:
Forze (62% implied win probability) vs Sinners
G2 (54%) vs VP
OG (59%) vs Complexity
It’s worth noting that while Forze, OG, and Complexity have locked up advancing to the playoff, they are fighting for seeding. The group winner gets a bye in the playoffs so all 3 times should be giving their match 100% effort. G2 vs VP is the only completely meaningless game, I could definitely see it getting a tiny bit clowny, at least potentially with map picks.
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Rush is randomly in the player pool, don’t play him.
Playing ownerships on Wednesday worked out much better than trying to outsmart Vegas did Tuesday, as Forze ended up beating G2 2-0 with their guys at decent ownerships. On Thursday I actually think Forze will end up slightly underowned again relative to their 62% implied win probability. Ownership will congregate around Niko and Mantuu and BlameF, leaving guys like Fl1t and Zorte fairly low owned.
Complexity outside of BlameF should also come in fairly underowned, as they’re underdogs against OG. Still, according to the odds they’d win in this matchup 4/10 times, and in those 4/10 times Poizon, jks, and/or es3tag should be solid stacking partners for Blame.
The G2/VP game is anyone’s guess. Neither team has anything to play for and both teams likely expected to advance from the group. I tend to like the VP side since they are the “underdog”, but really neither these teams has looked good at all. Even Niko was bad on Wednesday, and I doubt either team comes in with much motivation/preparation for this match. We could see some pub style CS in this game. I think that should favor the better players, so Niko, Hunter, Jame, and Yekindar are my favorite targets here.
It’s been Mantuu topping the charts in terms of FP/r so far this tournament, and while he’s a good captain I actually prefer the guy who’s nipping on his heels. No, not Niko (who himself is a very close 3rd in FP/r and a fine play), but Fl1t. Fl1t has huge upside and is my favorite captain play of the day. I’ll be loading up on him in my Forze stacks.
If you want to go value captain, a fine move on this slate where there are a bunch of studs to pay up for, Jerry is far too cheap and makes for a decent captain. JKS is cheap enough to warrant consideration, and if you want to go a bit more midrange, FlameZ has shown awesome upside, albeit usually only one map in a series.
Good luck on Thursday!