ESL Pro League continues Wednesday, with more action from Group B. We have another 3 game slate with lock at 7:30 am EDT. The games are:
OG (73% implied win probability) vs Sinners
VP (55%) vs Complexity
G2 (54%) vs Forze
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool is correct
Yesterday I made the mistake of thinking I know more than Vegas, I won’t be doing that again. Back to what I’m good at, which is recognizing where the field will misstep. Today, that’s most likely going to be Forze against G2. I think Forze come in underowned for their 46% implied win probability. Even though G2 have been terrible, Niko has been great, and people are going to flock to play him. Fl1t, Zorte, and Kensi are my favorite plays, Kensi remains absurdly cheap.
I also think Complexity outside of BlameF will go underowned. Poizon, es3tag, and jks are all good stacking partners to pair with BlameF.
OG may actually come in a bit underowned as well. This is one of the larger lines we’ve seen in this group, and the ownership likely won’t quite reflect it. I expect Valde in particular to come in too low, as most people will either play Mantuu or go cheap with niko and/or flamez. AleksiB could also go overlooked sitting right between the two of them.
Niko (G2) stands out above the crowd with how well he’s been playing, which is remarkable considering his team hasn’t won a game yet and are all but eliminated (maybe actually eliminated, I haven’t looked through scenarios) from playoff contention. If you’re looking for pivots off him at the high end, I like both Valde and Mantuu, or even Hunter if you like G2. I also like running Zorte, Fl1t, or potentially even Kensi on the Forze side of the matchup.
BlameF is also an excellent captain option. He hasn’t been scoring quite as well as Niko but he’s significantly cheaper. Poizon has also looked really good so far this tournament and is worth a look at captain.
Jame has had a really quiet tournament so far, but he can always explode at any given moment.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!