After Monday off, ESL One is back on Tuesday with a 3 Game EU/NA Slate. We have 3 interesting matchups, as none of them project to be blowouts per Vegas. The matchups are:
Navi (58% implied win probability) vs NiP
Heroic (57%) vs Fnatic
Furia (67%) vs 100 Thieves
It’s pretty to make lineups on Tuesday without dipping into any of the underdogs, especially with Vini’s sudden emergence as a fragger. He’s done particularly well on Inferno recently, teaming up with arT in Banana on CT side, and Furia keeps picking it. It’s possible that 100 Thieves ban inferno Tuesday, but they themselves have an 80% win rate there (albeit in only 5 contests) over the last 3 months. At only $6,000 I think Vini is an okay play given his new found form and likelihood of playing Inferno again. As value isn’t suuuper important, my focus will mostly be on where I can get ownership leverage on the field vs who can score the most points per dollar.
Since it is easy to fit favorites, I think that underdogs as a whole are going to go underowned on this slate. In both EU matchups, the underdog has an implied win probability of over 40%, yet both teams will probably come in with their top players in the 15-20% owned range. Fnatic in particular have struggled of late, and they are priced basically on par with Heroic. I wouldn’t blame you for watching Fnatic’s recent matches and saying “I’m going to full fade these guys”, but I’ve recently found myself falling into an “I know better than Vegas/the numbers” in particular in the Mad Lions win over Mouz the other day. Tuesday, I’m going to trust my numbers, and my numbers tell me that Fnatic are going to be underowned relative to their win (and thus probably good scores) equity.
I don’t think people are quite as down on NiP as they are Fnatic, but they do love to play S1mple when he’s on the slate, typically with good reason. That should help keep NiP ownership numbers down as well. 100T are the biggest underdog on the slate, so ownership should be low on them as well. When MME’ing Tuesday, I plan on having about equal amounts of all 4 EU teams, and a 60/40 split in Furia’s direction from the NA game. This should put me well over the field on all 3 underdogs, which I think is the right place to be on Tuesday.
Any slate that S1mple is on he is going to be right near the beginning of this section. As long as Zywoo isn’t on the slate, he offers way more upside than anyone else on the slate. Over the past 3 months S1mple averages .08, or 11%, more fantasy points per round compared to the number 2 player on the slate (jks). Despite that massive gap, he is not exorbitantly more expensive than the rest of the players, coming in at $9.8k while Hen1 (???) comes in at number 2 at $9.4k. In my Navi lineups I’ll have a good amount of S1mple captain. I may have one or two lineups with Electronic captain, but most of my Navi captain lineups will be with S1mple at the helm.
Outside of S1mple I plan on spreading my captain ownership around on Tuesday. Since I think all 6 teams are “live” in the sense that they can win their series, I’ll have a sprinkling of captains from all 6.
100T is probably the easiest, as it’s jks or bust for me. If they do manage to beat Furia, it will likely be off the back of a big performance from him. The rest of the team has been inconsistent, combine that with them being the biggest underdogs on the slate and I won’t be dipping too far down their roster to find my captain.
Same goes for Fnatic, as in recent times Brollan has separated himself as head and shoulders above his teammates in terms of fantasy scoring. Unfortunately for Fnatic fans, this mostly means everyone else has fallen off a cliff while Brollan has held steady, but he’s put up some truly impressive numbers considering how bad their win rate has been. I may mix in a couple of Krimz captain lineups here, but it will be mostly Brollan.
NiP, the last underdog, is a bit more tricky. Their scoring has been very balanced (and quite frankly, bad across the board) over the past 3 months, as all 3 of Plopski, Nawwk, and Rez have scored within .05 fantasy points per round of 1 another. I’ll have a little bit of all 3, maybe 10-15 total lineups between them if I play 105 (the max for the $10 Tuesday).
Moving to the non-Navi favorites, it looks like Niko and Teses are going to be the most popular captains Tuesday. That makes me like Stavn the best, as all 3 of them have fantasy points per round within .01 of each other over the past 3 months. This is a situation where I always want to one who is lowest owned, so if that’s Stavn on Tuesday he is who I want. I’ll mix in a little bit of Niko and Teses and maybe even a couple Cadian, as he isn’t too far behind the trio in fantasy points per round either.
Furia have been nearly impossible to get a read on recently. Yuurih is tops on the team in fp/r over the past 3 months, but last over the past month (and that’s now a decent sample size given that Furia also played in, and won, Dreamhack). As I mentioned earlier, Vini has suddenly started fragging and is only .04 fp/r behind Kscerato for tops on the team over the past month (he is 4th though, showing how tightly bunched up the team is). I don’t think this can last from Vini, but for the other 4, it’s kind of the same situation as Heroic, give me whoever the lowest owned will be. I would expect Kscerato and Yuurih to be the most popular tomorrow, so I’ll be using Hen1 and arT primarily.
That does it for me, good luck on Tuesday!