Welcome back. ESL Pro League resumes Tuesday after a day off Monday. We’ve got another 3 game slate from Group B. Lock is at 7:30 am EDT and the games are:

VP (58% implied win probability) vs Sinners

OG (62%) vs Forze

G2 (65%) vs Complexity

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Player pool is correct

Slate Analysis

This has been a weird group so far. VP look terrible, OG look great, 3/5 of G2 look terrible while Niko tries to carry them, and Sinners look extremely competitive, and Forze are 2-0. Col also looks better than expected after losing K0nfig to a wrist injury only a couple of days before their tournament started. The question for this slate becomes which of these 2 game starts do we buy, and which do we sell? For me, it breaks down like this:

Buy:

OG are good – This team is loaded with talent, and when Flamez joined they were in the midst of playing a bunch of tournaments. After a month to practice and gel as a team. They look like the best team in this group right now.

VP are lost – The player break doesn’t seem to have fixed any issues VP were having, if anything it seems to have made them worse? VP really needs one of Buster or Qikert (or Sanji but he plays support so I can’t really fault his low fragging) to step up in a big way, which I just don’t see happening at this point.

Sinners – for anyone who hasn’t followed CSGO pre-Draftkings, Oskar was a Top 20 player in the world back in 2017-18. He has this Sinners team playing really well, they should give everyone in this group a close game with the exception of maybe OG.

Sell:

G2 are bad – While G2 have looked terrible to start this tournament, I still believe in the talent of this roster. Niko and Hunter just need a little help and G2 will be back to looking like the top 5 team they can be.

Complexity – I do think es3tag is an upgrade over Rush, but keep in mind that Col have only played Forze and Sinners so far this tournament, the two teams who most people would’ve said were the weakest heading into the tournament. Until K0nfig gets back I don’t trust this team, Natosaphix is simply not a tier one player at this point in time.

Forze – I do like Forze, but this 2-0 start is a little deceptive. They beat Col in Col’s 1st game with not 1 but 2 new players, and beat a VP team that’s in disarray. I think Forze are solid but I think OG are a lot better.

 

The question becomes, how do we put this into action on the slate? I’m taking more stands than I often do because of what I outlined above. I plan to be heavy on OG, G2, and Sinners on this slate.

I think Col’s poor pricing (BlameF is way too cheap) will lead a lot of people to play Complexity even though they are the biggest underdogs on the slate. I’m going to mostly stay away in GPP’s.

I like the cheap OG guys quite a bit, niko in particular has looked good to start this tournament.

Top Captains

Niko (G2), Mantuu, Hunter, and Oskar are my favorite captains on this slate. They’re all fairly expensive, so I’m going to need savings to get to them, but I think there are enough value, or at least mid range, plays to make it work.

Going niko (OG) or FlameZ is the path I like if I’m looking for a value captain. I’d also consider Shock and Neofrag from Sinners.

Good luck on Tuesday!

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