Welcome back! Friday we have another 3 game slate on tap, again with 2 EU games and 1 NA game. The games are:
Mouz (67% implied win probability) vs Mad Lions
FaZe (72%) vs MiBR
EG (56%) vs Liquid
This seems like as straightforward of a slate as we’ve had in a while. Pricing is much looser than it has been recently. It’s pretty easy to get lineups with just EU favorites and whichever side of the NA game you prefer. This is the route that I plan on going. I don’t plan on having any of either MAD Lions or MiBR. MAD Lions have looked horrible without Bubzkji, and Mouz is in my opinion a top 10 team in the world. MiBR, well I don’t understand why they decided to play in Europe, they can’t even beat their NA/SA competition. They got absolutely steamrolled by G2, and I expect more of the same against FaZe. I don’t see myself playing any of either of these teams, you simply don’t need the savings on this slate.
That begs the question, how do we differentiate our lineups on Friday? From Mouz, I am going to stick with almost exclusively their top 3. ChrisJ and Karrigan simply do not put up enough kills at this stage of their careers, and I will be very surprised if either of them ends up in the top 3 in fantasy points on the day. I think Woxic is going to be incredibly popular tomorrow at only $6.8k. He is definitely a fine play and I will have plenty of him, I expect I’ll have a bunch of Mouz 3 stacks. In my Mouz 2 stacks, though, I’m to try to fit some frozen in instead of Woxic. Frozen struggled before the break and for a lot of their opening matchup versus Navi, but he also showed signs of life and I expect him to turn it on here against lesser competition. Going Frozen + Ropz instead of Woxic + Ropz should allow us to differentiate a bit within our Mouz lineups.
From FaZe, I am much more willing to dip into their bottom fraggers. Realistically anyone on the team can end up in the top 3 for the day, so I’ll have some of all 5 FaZe players. Playing rain or Kjaerbye should help differentiate our lineups, as I expect them both to come in much lower owned than their more heralded teammates.
The Liquid/EG game is what really makes the slate interesting. I personally don’t really have a lean one way or the other, but since I’m planning on only playing 1 team from each EU game, I’m okay with splitting my exposure here. I’ll probably have very close to 50/50 of each team. From EG I’ll mostly be focused on Cerq and Brehze, while on the Liquid side all 5 of their players have shown they can put up huge numbers. I expect his massive 120 point outburst last time out will increase Stewie’s ownership to more than it should be so I’ll be light on him, but I’ll have a fair mix of Liquid’s other 4 players.
I expect both Ropz and Woxic to be popular at captain, Ropz because he could very well put up the slate’s best score, Woxic because of how cheap he is and how much it opens up the rest of your lineup. I’ll probably end up close to the field on Ropz but plan on fading Woxic in the captain slot. I think there are many other players on the slate with more upside. One of those players is Frozen, I’ll have a couple of shares of him at the captain slot as I think he’ll go virtually unowned compared to his teammates.
From FaZe, I’ll have a bit of Niko and a bit of Broky, but don’t plan on going much further down the list in for my captain slot, as I don’t think the rest of the team has top score on the slate upside.
I am hopeful that most of the captain ownership ends up concentrated in EU, as people look for the “safe” points from their captains. I plan to tilt my captain ownership heavily towards the NA game, where I think the likely tight nature of the matchup will scare people off of using either side in the captain slot. From EG I’ll have either Brehze or Cerq, while from Liquid I’ll have a little bit of all 4 non-Stewie players. If we can get all 3 maps where the 1 loss from the winning teams is close, there’s crazy upside here, as shown by how high Liquid’s scores were the other day.
Good luck on Friday!