It’s day 4 of ESL Pro League and I don’t know about you guys but I’m getting a little tired of the same teams playing every day. We have another 3 game slate from Group A with lock at 7:30 am EDT. The games are:

Spirit (89% implied win probability) vs Bad News Bears (side note, why do they keep giving the one NA team the earliest possible game??)

Heroic (64%) vs Ence

Vitality (56%) vs Astralis

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Allu, Alter, and Xyp9x (unless Astralis makes a roster change, they are the first game this time so news should be out before lock) are not playing. Everyone else is despite any Draftkings injury designations.

Slate Analysis

It’s Spirit’s turn to beat up on the Bad News Bears. Or is it? Spirit looked atrocious vs Ence and are eliminated from playoff contention already. This game is totally meaningless for them. Of course, BNB are also already eliminated, but I don’t think they had expectations of advanced like Spirit did. If there was ever a slate to actually play BNB, it’s this one. I like a Junior one off or even a Junior + Swisher combo a bit in GPPs.

Spirit are still overwhelmingly likely to win though, so you should definitely get some exposure to them too. They’re pretty pricey, but I’m interested in SDY. If you look at his game history, he tends to do well against T2/3 teams and struggles against T1. The BNB matchup is the perfect chance for him to get back on track and have a big game.

While Ence have definitely been a pleasant surprise at this tournament, Heroic look like a juggernaut right now. Ence are the team I’m least interested in stacking on this slate, especially since they’re priced like this game is basically a coinflip. On the Heroic side, Refrezh remains perpetually underpriced while Sjuush and Stavn are also too cheap. Cadian and Teses will likely come in underowned because of their teammates being strong values, and are good GPP plays themselves.

In the last game, Astralis are priced far too low. I imagine many people will play them in order to fit Spirit stacks, and it makes a lot of sense. That’s likely the route I would go in cash too. Zywoo will of course carry plenty of ownership, but his teammates should again be low owned. Of course, his teammates outside of Apex were a massive disappointment on Wednesday, but Thursday is a new day. Misutaaa, Shox, and Kyojin should all have super low ownership despite being on a favorite on a 3 game slate.

Top Captains

We’ve yet to see Zywoo really pop off so far this tournament. Eventually it’s coming. However, he continues to garner a ton of ownership so I don’t mind paying up for other studs. Mir or Degster would be the way to go in cash/SE, while Teses and Cadian are interesting GPP pivots.

You can also go mid/low range. I already mentioned I like SDY against the lower tier opponents, he’s a solid captain choice as well. Stavn has looked great this tournament and is another strong mid-ranged option.

On the value side, Lucky has really impressed me since joining Astralis. They’re barely worse than a coinflip underdogs, I like him at captain. Refrezh is also a fine captain option and he saves enough money that you can load your lineup with studs.

Good luck on Thursday!

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